Midterm Senate forecast: Kalshi traders project 52 seats for Democrats

With Election Day only five days away, several competitive Senate races will determine which party controls the chamber in 2027.

Kalshi's Democratic Senate seats market currently projects 52 seats for the party following the midterm elections.

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Seven competitive Senate races could play a major role in determining control of the chamber, including six states Trump carried in 2024.

The Washington Post reported that Democrats only need to pick up four seats to retake the Senate, but several of the states in play are still toss-ups.

“The party has a clear lead in just one Republican-led state, North Carolina, where former Democratic governor Roy Cooper is favored to defeat Michael Whatley, a Republican, in the race for an open Senate seat,” The Post wrote.

The seven states that are still considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report include Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and Kansas. The Democrats hold 34 seats that aren't up for re-election, and Republicans hold 31 in the Senate that aren't up for re-election.

USA Today reported that a new CNN poll found that four of those states, including Michigan, Texas, Maine, and Kansas, have leads for Democrats.

“In Michigan and Texas, Democrats’ leads are outside the polls’ margins of error, while the races in Maine [and Kansas] are closer and within the margins of error,” USA Today reported. “Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats in the Nov. 3 election to take over the Senate, where Republicans have a 53-47 seat advantage.”

Real Clear Politics shows that two of the states not included in the CNN poll, North Carolina and Georgia, show a wide lead of 11 points and 8 points, respectively. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown holds a three-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

Republicans have stepped up campaign appearances in several competitive states as the parties make their final appeals before Election Day. The same CNN poll found that in four of those battleground states, Trump’s popularity is waning, “suggesting that the president’s barnstorm of rallies intended to fire up the MAGA base could backfire,” USA Today wrote.

“In the homestretch of the midterm campaign, [President Donald] Trump has crisscrossed the country – including visits to historically deep red states like Mississippi and South Carolina – as Republicans look to stave off a blue tsunami that would give Democrats control of the House and Senate,” USA Today reported.

With several Senate contests remaining competitive ahead of Election Day, the final balance of power will depend on results across multiple states. Kalshi's seat-count markets offer a snapshot of traders' expectations as both parties prepare for the Nov. 3 elections.

Kalshi's Democratic House seats market also projects an increase in the party's representation following the midterms.

The market currently projects the party will control approximately 240 House seats after the election.

Kalshi markets now predict

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