Nathan Fielder and his co-director Lance Oppenheim's wild Elizabeth Holmes documentary You Can See Everything is gaining more than just Best Picture momentum.
Kalshi traders believe at 66% odds that the Fielder/Oppenheim duo have a chance to earn one of the five Best Director slots when nominations are announced in January.
Even more interesting, traders see Fielder/Oppenheim as the second favorite to win Best Director at 24% odds behind the frontrunner Christopher Nolan's 58%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with You Can See Everything?
‘You Can See Everything’s Continued Success
You Can See Everything premiered to fanfare at a surprise screening at the Telluride Film Festival and was a box office hit in its first week of theatrical release, grossing over $15 million off of a limited 855 screens.
Its success only continues to build as the film expands to more screens across the US. The documentary has now crossed $50 million in its third week, joining Fahrenheit 9/11 and March of the Penguins as the only three non-music documentaries to reach this box office milestone.
Critics and fans alike continue to hype up the documentary, with The Guardian calling it “a cultural moment” and Letterboxd users declaring it “a must watch.”
The Best Director race
According to A24's awards site, the studio is officially campaigning the documentary for six categories, including Best Director. (Notably, Amanda Seyfried is not included here despite robust online chatter about a potential Best Supporting Actress nomination. Whether this is to avoid the spoiler of her participation remains to be seen.)
Fielder (and Oppenheim, though the Kalshi market lists only Fielder’s name) would make history as the first documentarians to ever receive a Best Director Oscar nomination, just as their film would make history as the first ever documentary to be nominated for Best Picture.
But the competition is steep this year. Christopher Nolan leads the nomination odds at 97%, as well as the Winner odds at 58%, for his critically acclaimed epic The Odyssey. Nolan recently won the Best Director award in 2024 for the biographical drama Oppenheimer, which also took home Best Picture that year.
Fielder/Oppenheim sit in second place at 24% odds to win, with multiple-time nominee Denis Villeneuve behind them at 15%. Spanish directors Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi are currently in fourth position for their queer epic The Black Ball (La Bola Negra) at 9%. All three are trading high in the nominations market as well, with Calvo/Ambrossi in second at 87% odds followed by Fielder/Oppenheim at 66% and Villeneuve at 59%.
Just ahead of Fielder in the Kalshi Best Director nominees market is Martin McDonagh, another multiple-time nominee without a win. He’s expected to be nominated at 67% odds for Wild Horse Nine, but is currently trading at 2% in the winner market. Wild Horse Nine has not yet released in theaters after a positive festival run, so that number may change after it premieres on November 6.
Further down the list in the Winner market, historic Oscar favorites David Fincher, Alejandro G. Iñárritu, and Danny Boyle are all forecasted with less than 1% odds to take home the prize, and aren’t trading high in the nominations market either. Fincher and Boyle’s competing films have not been released yet meaning their odds could increase following that, while Iñárritu’s Digger received mixed-to-negative reviews that likely ended its Oscar run.
Olivia Wilde is also in the mix, currently trading at 54% in the nominees market. Her film The Invite premiered to rave reviews and good word-of-mouth buzz, but The Academy has a track record of overlooking women in the Best Director category. In the 98-year history of the Oscars, only 10 women have ever been nominated, with only 3 winning. That history seems to be on traders’ minds, as she is now trading at 2% in the Winner market.
The Best Picture race
You Can See Everything has slid into second place in the Best Picture Winner market at 20%, behind The Odyssey’s 55%.
After the documentary's strong theatrical release on October 16, the film overtook The Black Ball (La Bola Negra) as the second place favorite. The Black Ball now sits at 15% in the market.
Some other potential contenders, like Dune: Part 3 and Artificial, have not yet released and will likely rise in the market once critical reviews and audience reactions are live later this year.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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