Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton are now tied in Kalshi's Kansas Senate market.
Both candidates are currently priced at 50%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What do the polls say?
Despite Kansas' recent Republican voting history, a new CNN poll shows a competitive Senate race.
CNN reported that Hamilton holds a small lead in the polls at 49%, followed by Marshall at 45%, “even as likely voters say they would prefer Republicans to control the Senate. Voters here largely view Marshall unfavorably and say their choices are about Marshall more so than Hamilton.”
Favorable ratings
Marshall's unfavorable ratings come amid scrutiny of his record as a physician and his support for President Donald Trump's policies.
The New Yorker reported that higher diesel prices and tariffs on beef have hurt Kansas cattle ranchers.
“ICE recently raided meat-processing plants in several cities in rural southwestern Kansas,” The New Yorker wrote. “Trump even threatened to ban jets made by Bombardier, a Canadian company; the company’s American headquarters are in Wichita.”
A September 2026 investigation by The New York Times also examined lawsuits Marshall filed against hundreds of patients over unpaid medical bills.
The report also found that 81 patients were arrested after missing court dates, while Marshall's lawyers sought arrest warrants in 13 of those cases.
“They also garnished patients’ paychecks and bank accounts,” The Times reported. “They routinely charged patients an 18 percent annual interest rate.”
Marshall has pushed back against his critics on both fronts. At an October 2026 debate, he defended his tariff record, saying he was tired of seeing jobs leave the country and that trade protections have spurred a manufacturing recovery.
His campaign has also gone on offense against Hamilton, branding him as too liberal for Kansas and highlighting a past sermon in which Hamilton urged his congregation to repent for eating beef. Marshall has argued that a Hamilton victory would hand control of the Senate to Democrats.
Evangelical outreach
Meanwhile, Hamilton has built a national following through his work as a Methodist pastor and author. Vox reported that Hamilton is a Democrat seeking to unite religious voters, a trend in other races like state Rep. James Talarico’s race for the Texas Senate seat.
The campaigns of Hamilton and Texas Democrat James Talarico highlight efforts by some Democratic candidates to appeal to religious voters. White evangelical voters have been a reliable Republican constituency in recent decades, particularly in the South and parts of the Midwest.
“From the 1960s to the 1980s, Democrats could routinely count on majority support among white evangelical Protestants in congressional elections, and at least substantial support from them at the presidential level,” Vox reported. “But by the 1990s – with Americans becoming more evangelical and evangelicals becoming more Republican – the GOP had effectively locked in a permanent voting bloc, especially powerful in the heartland and the South.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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