MLB playoff odds: Astros jump Rangers thanks to tiebreaker

Heading into the final week of the season, the Texas Rangers were favored to claim the AL West crown and with it, a berth in the MLB postseason.

But after one game, the odds have flipped.

Texas fell to the New York Mets on Tuesday, while their division rival claimed a victory over the Seattle Mariners.

The one game standings jump led to a complete flip in odds for playoff qualification, according to Kalshi traders. Houston is now favored at 68%, while the Texas Rangers are priced at 34%.

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While both Houston and Texas have the same record, it's the Astros that maintain the edge in the division.

That's because the Astros held a 9-4 record in head-to-head contests with the Rangers this season.

As such, traders provide the squad with a distinct odds advantage in the divisional race as of Wednesday afternoon. 

Even though each team has five games remaining, after Tuesday night's loss, the Rangers have ceded control of their destiny to the Astros. Traders reflected as such with the odds, flipping them dramatically to favor the Astros at 68%. Prior to their Tuesday night games though, the Astros were priced at 42% and the Rangers at 60%.

Should they finish their final five games with the same record, ending the season in a tie, as is the case today, Houston will advance. 

However, technically neither has been eliminated from a Wild Card berth, the qualification given to the three Major League Baseball teams from each league that don't win their division. 

But, their 78-79 record places both three games back of the Chicago White Sox with just five games to play, a significant uphill climb that has led Kalshi traders to essentially lock the White Sox into playoff qualification. Odds for the White Sox, and their divisional foe Cleveland Guardians, are priced at 99% respectively, as the season winds to a close.

Should the Wild Card unexpectedly come into play, both teams hold the tiebreaker over Cleveland. The White Sox hold a tiebreaker edge over the Rangers, but not the Astros.

As the teams fight for their playoff lives on Wednesday night, Kalshi traders price the Rangers at 50% to win their matchup against the New York Mets. Meanwhile, the Houston Astros are priced at 48% on the road against the Seattle Mariners.

The Rangers will square off with one of the National League's best young arms in Nolan McLean. Though McLean gave up five earned runs in his most recent road start, the young right-hander has pitched to a 2.72 ERA in his last 15 starts overall. His bid to play spoiler may be aided by a relatively weak Rangers team against righties as well. The team has posted just a 98 wRC+ against that handedness this season, good for 22nd in the league.

The Astros on the other hand are a slight underdog on the road against the Seattle Mariners.

Houston will send out little-experienced right-hander Ethan Pecko, who will make just his fifth career start on Wednesday against a Mariners team that is ranked in the top-five in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season. After being swept at home over the weekend, the Astros regained control of the division with a 7-0 victory on Tuesday, spearheaded offensively by the likely AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez. 

Alvarez, who is fighting for a chance at the elusive triple crown, is priced at 93% to win the award, according to Kalshi traders. 

While Texas and Houston provide the most dramatic playoff race to monitor during the final days of the regular season, Kalshi traders do not favor them to advance far in the playoff bracket should they wind up there. 

Traders currently give the Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians the best odds of representing the American League in the Championship Series, at 52% and 44%, respectively.

Tampa Bay has already clinched a first round bye by winning the American League East on Tuesday, meaning they’ll be spared a best-of-three Wild Card Series when the postseason begins. Currently, Cleveland maintains the second bye in the league, though their divisional lead stands at just one game. 

Tampa Bay also maintains the third best odds to win the World Series, priced at 11.1% on Wednesday, the best odds in the American League. 

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