The Major League Baseball season will draw to a close this week as teams complete their 162-game regular season schedule.
As of Tuesday, six playoff berths have been clinched, and six remain up for grabs, though one contentious race stands above the rest: the AL West crown.
In the American League West, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros are jockeying for the division crown and a guaranteed playoff berth. Only one game in the standings separates the pair, with just six games remaining for each team this week.
As recently as September 14, 2026, that one-game advantage belonged to the Astros. But now, it is the Rangers on top.
Kalshi traders price the Rangers' odds of making the playoffs at 60%, and the Astros at 42% as the week begins.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres, and Boston Red Sox.
Texas Rangers jump Houston Astros in AL West
While six playoff berths still need to be clinched, the race in the American League West provides baseball fans and Kalshi traders with the most dramatic finish of the season.
That is because the stakes extend beyond playoff seeding.
The AL West race will likely determine whether the Texas Rangers or Houston Astros qualify for the MLB postseason at all, not just who or where they will play.
Earlier in September 2026, it was the Astros that looked destined to claim the divisional crown and the third seed in the American League. But after getting swept by the Atlanta Braves, Houston has fallen into the second spot in the division, trailing its in-state rival and divisional foe, the Texas Rangers.
The pair each play six games this week, with only one game in the standings separating them. Crucially, it is the Houston Astros who hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rangers. Therefore, if they finish the season with the exact same record, it is the Astros that will claim the division crown.
To kickstart their penultimate series, the Rangers will host the New York Mets tonight in a game where Kalshi traders make them slight favorites at 53%. They will play another two games at home against the Mets before traveling to Minnesota to conclude their season.
The Astros, on the other hand, are underdogs (45%) in their first game on the road against the Seattle Mariners, who are priced at 56% to win tonight's matchup. After the two-game series, the Astros will play four road games against the Athletics, who hold the third-worst record in MLB this year.
Despite concluding the year with the A's, the Astros are priced at just 42% to qualify for the playoffs according to Kalshi traders. Meanwhile, even without the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Rangers hold odds of 60% to make the postseason.
Six MLB playoff spots remain up for grabs
Aside from the AL West race, another five playoff spots remain up for grabs, but questions about which teams will qualify are largely already answered.
In the National League, all three divisions have been clinched, placing Milwaukee, Atlanta, and Los Angeles directly into the postseason bracket. Though the wild card berths have not officially been clinched, the Chicago Cubs, San Diego Padres, and Philadelphia Phillies are all priced at 97% or greater to earn a postseason berth.
Nevertheless, the final week of play for the trio will still be important as they play for home-field advantage ahead of the Wild Card Series.
The one NL team on the outside looking in is the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are priced at 5% to edge out one of the aforementioned wild card teams. The Diamondbacks are four games back of the final wild card playoff spot and have only six games to play, meaning they will need a significant collapse from another team and likely six straight wins to have a chance.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles are still clinging to last gasps in the wild card race, trailing by 3.5 and 4.5 games, respectively. And while they are not technically eliminated as of Tuesday afternoon, traders price the odds of playoff qualification at just 1%.
Los Angeles Dodgers remain World Series favorite
Playoff baseball will return on September 29 with the start of the Wild Card Series. During the round, four teams from each league will play a best-of-three series for the right to advance to the Division Series.
In the Division Series, teams play a best-of-five series, followed by best-of-seven in the Championship Series and World Series.
As it stands, the Los Angeles Dodgers remain the favorite according to Kalshi traders, who price their odds at 30.5% prior to postseason play. The Dodgers, who have been the favorite all season long, have dropped since mid-August 2026, ceding some win probability to teams like the Milwaukee Brewers, according to Kalshi traders.
The Brewers, who own the best record in the league so far this year, hold the second-best odds at 17.1%, up from around 3% when the season began.
Other notable odds heading into the final week of the season include the Tampa Bay Rays (10.0%), New York Yankees (8.8%), and the Atlanta Braves (6.2%).
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