With the MLB trade deadline approaching, Kalshi traders believe Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal could be on the move.
The Kalshi market for Skubal's next team shows the Los Angeles Dodgers chances of landing Skubal at 42%, followed by Baltimore at 16%, the Milwaukee Brewers at 12%, and Detroit at 7%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with MLB.
The Dodgers
Trade speculation has centered on the Dodgers as reports link several Los Angeles pitchers to potential packages for Skubal.
Sports Illustrated's Matt Levine reported that right-handed pitcher Emmet Sheehan may be on the bubble with the Dodgers for his solid but somewhat inconsistent pitching over the season. He posted a 5.13 ERA over 87.2 innings showing “signs of being a dominant pitcher, but more often than not has been unable to put up zeroes on a consistent basis. He’s also struggled to go deep into games.”
Reports have linked Sheehan to a potential deal “with the main one involving Los Angeles acquiring ace Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers.”
The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon wrote Sheehan is one of eight pitchers involved in such a deal, but Sheehan's name is on the top of the rumor list.
“The way they would do it, according to two rival executives briefed on the Tigers’ thinking, is by trading Skubal for a controllable starting pitcher plus quality prospects,” they wrote. “The starter would replace Skubal in the rotation, backfilling his innings but almost certainly providing lesser performance.”
The Brewers
Another player mentioned by The Athletic is Brewers pitcher Logan Henderson.
MLB.com's Adam McCalvy wrote that the Brewers have been looking to make a “more aggressive” pitching trade, especially for Skubal, as the deadline approaches. They’ve already “touched base” with the Tigers’ pitcher, and also with the San Diego Padres’ Mason Miller.
Henderson seems to be a potential centerpiece in a Skubal trade since he has “a spotty injury history…but he owns a 3.05 ERA and a 31.8 percent strikeout rate after allowing two [New York] Mets runs in a five-inning, nine-strikeout performance on Wednesday [July 22].”
The Tigers
The Dodgers hold a commanding 42% lead in the market, though the spread across multiple contenders reflects continued uncertainty over whether Detroit will ultimately trade Skubal.
ESPN's Jesse Rogers reported that the Tigers are also considering keeping Skubal for a little while longer, or at least until the very last minute of the trade deadline.
“The Tigers think they can win the division and will hold out as long as possible in deciding whether to trade Tarik Skubal,” Rogers wrote. “Some rivals believe they can as well, casting further doubt that he’ll be moved. Cutting their deficit in half by the deadline would make the decision a lot easier.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: Jeffrey Hyde
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with Major League Baseball.
