It is not quite October, but playoff baseball is in full swing.
Eight teams took the diamond on Tuesday, Sept. 29, to begin the postseason. Baseball games this time of year are typically decided by dominant arms or one swing of the bat, and Tuesday provided both.
As it stands, the Atlanta Braves, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, and San Diego Padres are one win away from advancing to their league's Division Series.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Phillies, Houston Astros, Boston Red Sox, and Chicago Cubs will look to delay their offseason, needing a victory on Wednesday to extend their season.
Ahead of first pitch Wednesday, Kalshi traders give the Phillies and Astros the best chance of doing so.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is the Official Prediction Market Partner of the Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, and Boston Red Sox.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves odds: Phillies favored to force Game 3
The Philadelphia Phillies were leading in the bottom of the eighth inning on Tuesday, needing just four more outs to steal a Game 1 victory against their division rival, the Atlanta Braves. But a three-run home run from Austin Riley pushed the Braves over the top, and flipped the script on the series.
In Game 2, though, the Phillies have the edge according to Kalshi traders, currently trading around 52%.
Atlanta used a dominant performance from its ace Chris Sale on Tuesday, and now will turn the ball to right-hander and trade-deadline acquisition, Tyler Mahle. Mahle has already thrown 13 innings against the Phillies during September, allowing just one earned run across two starts.
The Phillies, on the other hand, will turn the ball over to left-hander Cristopher Sánchez, their rotation anchor for much of the season. Sánchez was masterful this season, racking up 18 wins and tying for second overall in wins above replacement (WAR) among all starting pitchers.
The lefty, though, has never beaten the Braves, taking two losses against them this season, including one in September. Nevertheless, he has a strong postseason track record and gave up just three runs across 12 innings during the 2025 playoffs.
A big question for the Phillies will be the bullpen behind Sánchez. Interim manager Don Mattingly turned to dominant closer Jhoan Duran on Tuesday, Sept. 29, but the decision backfired in his second inning of work. Duran threw 27 pitches and blew the save and may not be available if it matters late on Wednesday.
Though the Phillies are slight favorites Wednesday, Kalshi traders still make it very unlikely that they can win back-to-back games in Atlanta. The Braves are priced at 75% to win the series.
Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox odds: Kalshi traders give Astros the edge in Game 2
The Houston Astros dropped Game 1 in their home ballpark on Tuesday, 6-3.
On Wednesday, they will turn the ball over to their best starting pitcher, Hunter Brown. Behind Brown's right arm, Kalshi traders make the team 59% favorites to take Game 2. The righty missed more than two months earlier this season with a shoulder strain, but returned to familiar form, posting a 3.19 ERA in just more than 100 innings.
His opponent will turn to right-hander Sean Burke, who, like Brown, fared well against the opposing offense this year. In nearly 12 innings of work against Houston, Burke allowed just one earned run across two outings this season.
After the starters, the managers will have their work cut out for them. Both teams opted to utilize a bullpen game on Tuesday, with the White Sox using five different pitchers to complete the nine innings, and the Astros using eight arms to get 27 outs.
Traders see the scoring total as a toss-up, with odds of more than 7.5 runs being scored trading at 50% on Wednesday, Sept. 30.
If a Game 3 is forced, the teams will play in Houston again on Thursday. Despite being favored in Game 2, the Astros are priced at just 33% to win consecutive games and take the series.
World Series odds shakeup: Yankees, Padres odds jump
Though each team will need a victory to move to the Division Series, dominant opening wins from the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres led to a shakeup in championship odds, according to Kalshi traders.
The Yankees are now priced at 13.9% to win the World Series, the third best odds among all remaining teams. Meanwhile, the Padres odds jumped 4% after defeating the Chicago Cubs in Game 1, now priced at 9.9% to hoist the trophy at the end of the postseason.
With the luxury of first round byes, odds for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers were relatively unchanged, priced at 27.9% and 16.7%, respectively, the two biggest favorites in the field.
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