NFL standings predictions: divisions, odds, playoffs

As the NFL regular season rapidly approaches, football fans will start debating the sport’s biggest question: Who will win the Super Bowl?

But predicting the NFL standings before the season begins requires thinking in probabilities, not certainties. Key injuries or surprise breakout stars can quickly turn a preseason favorite into a team scrapping for a final playoff spot. 

Here are the projected NFL standings for 2026 and what Kalshi traders currently suggest about the playoff picture in the NFC and AFC this season. 

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL.}

Prior to the 2026 NFL regular season kickoff, the Los Angeles Rams (15%) stand above the field as the Super Bowl favorite according to Kalshi traders. Traders price their NFC West division rival, and reigning Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks as the second favorite at 8%, followed by AFC foes the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens at 7%, respectively. 

Behind the Rams and the Seahawks, Kalshi traders make the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles, and San Francisco 49ers the most likely to take the NFC crown, earning the right to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, and Los Angeles Chargers lead the AFC contenders, all priced at 11% to represent their conference in the Super Bowl. 

More than a few key storylines are circling the league headed into the season, including the recent trade of defensive All-Pro Myles Garrett, who now finds himself on the Super Bowl favorite Rams after his time with the Cleveland Browns. 

The Patriots fell in last year’s Super Bowl, but their odds have slipped a bit given (5%) they’ll once more need to contend with division rival the Buffalo Bills, who led by Josh Allen have one of the best chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy according to Kalshi traders. 

Further down the list, the Detroit Lions are priced at just 4% to be the NFL champion, but with the easiest schedule in the league they hold the third best odds to represent the NFC in the final tilt. 

NFL standings projections can be built in multiple ways. 

Power-rating systems will attempt to estimate the strength of a team, simulating its season using factors such as strength of schedule. Editorial predictions might instead rely on analyst or expert opinions about roster changes, and potential player improvements or regressions. 

When viewing NFL standings predictions on Kalshi, traders are seeing the market’s collective real-time opinion on the probability of an event occurring. 

For example, when evaluating the NFL Champion market, a price of 15% for the Los Angeles Rams means that traders are pricing the probability of the Rams winning the Super Bowl at 15%. 

Not only can traders actively evaluate or predict the NFL Champion, but they can also predict the winner of each conference and the respective divisions. 

As weeks go by, or more information comes into the market about injuries or new acquisitions made by the team, the probabilities will fluctuate and reflect a new prediction on the league standings at the division, conference, and championship level. 

For a look at how Kalshi traders approached last season from the opening kickoff, see Kalshi's 2025 pro football preview.

In both the AFC and NFC there are four divisions: North, South, East, and West. Each division is made up of four teams that compete to become divisional winners. At the end of the regular season, the team at the top of each division earns an automatic playoff berth, with the top three remaining teams clinching wild card spots. 

Below we’ll use current Kalshi odds to show the projected end of NFL standings by division. 

The Buffalo Bills remain the team to beat in the AFC East, even though they'll need to contend with last year's AFC champions, the New England Patriots. As it stands, Kalshi traders price the Bills around 57% while the Patriots trade around 40%. Despite the difference, traders forecast their win totals less than one win apart, illustrating how narrow the race could become as the season plays out. 

The Baltimore Ravens finished last season 8-9 after dealing with injuries to star quarterback Lamar Jackson. Despite that, the team finds itself atop the projected rankings for the AFC North Division, priced at 44% to win the division. Greater aspirations may sit in Baltimore, where the team maintains the second best odds to win the conference, priced at 13% at the time of writing. 

While the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves as the next most likely (34%), they are 9 teams behind the Ravens per ESPN’s FPI, pointing to a more substantial power rating discrepancy when looking at preseason win totals and strength of schedule metrics. 

The Houston Texans are favored to win the AFC South, priced at 45% before the season begins. Coming off a 12 win season, the Texans will need to fend off the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are priced at 29% to snag the division. 

Yet while the Jags seem on the outside looking in for the division, Kalshi traders price them at 53% to snag a playoff spot, hinting at strong wild card chances should they be unable to topple the Texans.  

While each other AFC division has a clear cut projected leader, the AFC West presents a trio of similarly priced teams, though the Kansas City Chiefs (34%) narrowly edge out the Los Angeles Chargers (33%) and Denver Broncos (32%). 

Kansas City seeks a rebound season after they failed to make the playoffs last year, snapping a streak of 10-consecutive years making the postseason. Meanwhile, the Chargers and Broncos will rely on another year of experience for their quarterbacks, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix. 

Though only one team can win the division, the trio is likely to produce at least one wild card berth, with all three teams priced at 60% or better to clinch a playoff berth. 

A couple of years removed from a Super Bowl victory, the Philadelphia Eagles are once more a favorite to win their division and potentially challenge for more. Priced at 40% before the season kicks off, the Eagles will be immediately challenged by the Dallas Cowboys (36%) for the divisional crown. 

The tight race is backed by projection systems like ESPN’s FPI, which ranks the teams No. 10 and No. 11 to start the year. Meanwhile, the remaining two teams in the division, the Commanders and Giants, rank No. 21 and No. 23, respectively. 

After a tremendous 2024, the Detroit Lions fell back to 9-8 in 2025, finishing in last place in the NFC North. This year though, Kalshi traders are pricing the Lions as the favorite to take the divisional crown at 35%, edging out the Green Bay Packers (29%). 

In their corner, the Lions boast the easiest strength of schedule according to ESPN’s preseason FPI, helping provide an edge in the divisional projections. That’s despite the fact that FPI actually gives Green Bay the nod as the division’s best team. 

Perhaps the most difficult division to project from top to bottom, all members of the NFC South maintain odds of at least 20% to win the division. 

That’s led by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 31% and quickly followed by the New Orleans Saints (30%), who showcased a late-season surge thanks to Rookie of the Year runner-up, Tyler Shough, the team’s now second-year quarterback. 

Both TeamRankings and ESPN’s FPI place all four teams within an 8-team window ranked from No.18-26, adding to the data which suggests the division is up for grabs. 

As the Super Bowl favorite, the Los Angeles Rams are also the odds on leader to take down the NFC West at 48%. Rated as the top team per FPI and TeamRankings, the Rams top divisional contender is the reigning Super Bowl Champion, Seattle Seahawks (29%). 

But it’s not just a two-team race, as the in-state rival San Francisco 49ers hold a 21% chance of taking the division, perhaps bolstered by the fact that the Arizona Cardinals are priced at less than 1%. 

Using the division predictions, a possible 2026 playoff field could look like this: 

While these teams currently stand among the most likely playoff qualifiers, Kalshi’s playoff qualifier market identifies a notable contingent of teams around 40-50% that are not listed. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the second most likely victor in the AFC South and the Chicago Bears, the third strongest in the NFC North, both sit around 50% to make the playoffs at the time of writing. 

As the postseason nears, Kalshi also covers individual playoff rounds in depth. Last year's divisional round odds breakdown and Big Game odds and predictions show what Kalshi markets look like as the field narrows to the final four.

The most useful NFL standings predictions may not be the ones that agree. Discrepancies between models, analysts, and prediction markets can point to areas where expectations are most uncertain, potentially revealing opportunities for savvy traders. 

Nevertheless, it's important to consider all sources of information. While models like ESPN’s FPI provide strong contextual analysis for understanding a team’s likelihood of success, prediction markets counter the information with real-time, instant feedback. 

For example, if a mid-week injury or other breaking news item occurs, traders on prediction markets like Kalshi will move quickly to find market inefficiencies, whereas FPI or editorially based analysis may not catch up until the following days. 

Static preseason projections may remain unchained for weeks, but market prices can react in minutes. 

For a deeper look at how to navigate pro football markets as championship weekend approaches, see how to trade the Big Game on Kalshi.

The Rams, Seahawks, Bills, and Ravens enter the season as the most likely champions, but underlying races in each division and conference remain far from settled. 

Once games begin, injuries, regression, breakouts, and more will begin to reshape the standings and the projected finishes. 

Fans and traders hoping to follow the unfolding playoff races and likely Super Bowl champion can do so with Kalshi’s professional football markets all year long.

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