Kalshi traders now price former Sen. Sherrod Brown as the favorite in the race for Ohio's Senate seat.
The Ohio Senate election market shows Brown at 49% and incumbent Sen. Jon Husted at 47%.
Why is Brown favored?
Husted led the market for most of the election cycle until a new poll upended his standing.
The Washington Examiner reported that a new Fox News poll shows Brown leading Husted by eight points, consistent with the Kalshi market.
“The numbers have remained the same from a poll conducted in June, which found the same margin.
The poll also found that economic concerns are the top issue for Ohio voters.
“The top issue for voters is affordability, with 40% of respondents saying inflation and high prices are the biggest factor in their vote for Ohio’s next senator,” The Examiner reported. “Healthcare and immigration, and border security trailed at 14% and 12%, respectively.”
Husted’s energy scandal
Energy prices have also factored into Husted’s poor polling numbers.
The Columbus Dispatch has also reported extensively on Husted's ties to FirstEnergy, the energy company at the center of Ohio's House Bill 6 bribery scandal.
Husted served as a “key ally” for the Akron-based company FirstEnergy. The company spent more than $60 million as part of a scheme involving former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder “in exchange for a nuclear bailout known as House Bill 6. The pay-to-pay [sic] scandal upended state government and sent Householder and former Ohio Republican Party chair Matt Borges to prison.”
Husted was not charged as part of the scheme, but he was a vocal supporter of House Bill 6 while serving as Ohio’s lieutenant governor.
“Brown and other Democrats are eager to highlight the ordeal, including Husted’s recent testimony in the trial of two former FirstEnergy executives accused of bribery,” The Dispatch reported.
Husted’s connection to FirstEnergy stretches back years. He backed several pro-utility policies while serving as Ohio House Speaker. FirstEnergy spent $1 million to support Husted’s gubernatorial bid, and after Husted dropped out and joined Mike DeWine’s ticket, the company directed another $2.5 million toward the DeWine campaign.
In 2022, a series of text messages became public showing that Husted had a “direct line to FirstEnergy” and was “fighting to the end” for the bailout, according to The Dispatch.
Husted has defended himself by pointing out that he did not cast a vote for House Bill 6 in the Legislature and did not sign the bill into law, saying he was trying to save two nuclear power plants to preserve low energy prices.
“If those two power plants had closed, energy prices in Ohio would be unbelievably expensive because we already had lost so much generation,” Husted said.
Traders have shifted toward Brown as the race enters its next phase, with Husted facing both unfavorable polling and renewed scrutiny over his FirstEnergy ties.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Brown winning the Ohio Senate election: 49%
Husted winning the Ohio Senate election: 47%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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