2026 Oscars: odds and predictions

Awards season has always attracted passionate debate, but something has shifted in how audiences engage with it. Prediction markets, once the domain of niche financial, political, and weather traders, have moved into the cultural mainstream, and award shows like the Oscars are now one of the most actively traded entertainment events on platforms like Kalshi. Rather than relying solely on critics' circles and trade publications, more fans and forecasters are turning to real-time implied probabilities to track where the smart money is going.

The 98th Academy Awards, airing March 15, 2026, on ABC and hosted by Conan O'Brien, features an unusually rich field. Sinners leads all films with a record-setting 16 nods. One Battle After Another follows with 13. Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme each earned nine. Hamnet landed eight. With this many genuine contenders across major categories, the prediction market data is especially useful for cutting through the noise in the media, and landing on actual probabilities for each film to win different awards.

Here is where Kalshi's implied probabilities currently stand across the six major categories, based on live market data heading into final voting.

One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson's Warner Bros. thriller, has been the consensus Best Picture frontrunner since its Golden Globe and Critics' Choice wins. With 13 nods and the backing of nearly every major guild, it holds a commanding 74% implied probability. Sinners, Ryan Coogler's record-smashing horror film set in 1930s Mississippi, is the main challenger at 15%, buoyed by its 16 nominations and renewed momentum heading into final voting. Hamnet (8%) and Marty Supreme (3%) round out the credible contenders, with Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams the remaining nominees trading at long odds.

With an 88% implied probability, Paul Thomas Anderson is the overwhelming favorite to take home best director for One Battle After Another. His competitors, Ryan Coogler for Sinners (9%) and Chloé Zhao (3%), are all respected nominees, but the market is pricing Anderson as the strong favorite with Coogler sitting at a distant second given Sinners' record recognition haul.

At 88% implied probability, Jessie Buckley is the overwhelming favorite to win the Oscar for Best Actress. Her performance as Agnes in Hamnet, Chloé Zhao's historical drama about Shakespeare's wife navigating grief, has earned near-universal acclaim throughout awards season. Though Rose Byrne, who starred in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, hit a high of 30% to win Best Actress in December, her odds have significantly dropped to 8% in February as we are getting closer to the Oscars.

Timothée Chalamet leads with 77% implied probability for his electrifying performance in Marty Supreme, the A24 table-tennis drama. This would mark his second consecutive Best Actor nomination. Leonardo DiCaprio sits at 10% for One Battle After Another, a notable market position that reflects his Oscar-caliber résumé and the film's overall strength, even if the consensus favors Chalamet. Michael B. Jordan is a close third for his performance in Sinners with a 9% chance of winning Best Actor.

Teyana Taylor leads the supporting actress market at 72% implied probability for her role in One Battle After Another. Amy Madigan has the second-highest implied probability at 20% for her performance in Weapons. In early January, this was seen as a very competitive race for Best Supporting Actress with Taylor and Madigan both sitting in the high thirties; Madigan was even seen as the favorite for a few days. However, on January 12, the market shifted drastically with Taylor climbing to 65% and Madigan dropping to 20%. Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value) round out the nominees. The presence of two Sentimental Value contenders in the same category may split votes, which further consolidates Taylor's advantage in market pricing.

Stellan Skarsgård leads at 67% for Sentimental Value, Joachim Trier's Norwegian family drama that earned nine nominations overall. Sean Penn sits at 17% for One Battle After Another, making this the only supporting category where there is a meaningful challenger to the frontrunner. Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), and Delroy Lindo (Sinners) complete a stacked field.

Understanding why certain contenders dominate the market requires looking beyond the nominations themselves.

Not all Oscar categories generate equal market volume. Best Picture typically attracts the most trading activity, which means its implied probabilities tend to be the most “efficient.” High-volume categories reflect broader consensus and are less susceptible to sudden swings unless a major development occurs, such as Sinners' record 16 nominations giving it a big boost in January. Best Picture currently has over $10 million in trading volume, while all the other Oscar categories have under $6 million in trading volume. Best Actor currently has the second-highest trading volume of the Oscar markets with over $5 million in trading volume. More competitive markets, with more swings, tend to attract higher volume as well.

Buzz is the informal currency of awards season, and the Oscar prediction markets absorb it quickly. The sustained critical momentum behind Buckley's performance in Hamnet, or the awards circuit dominance of One Battle After Another, creates persistent upward pressure on their implied probabilities. When a film like Sentimental Value arrives late with strong international attention, having won at both Cannes and BAFTA, the market reprices the Oscar award probabilities accordingly, often within hours, if not minutes. Even technical contenders like The Smashing Machine, nominated for makeup and hairstyling, generate buzz that can lift a film's overall profile with voters.

Oscars outcomes are heavily predicted by the results of precursor awards: the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, SAG Awards, DGA, WGA, and BAFTA. One Battle After Another won Best Picture at the Golden Globes and Critics' Choice, which is why it commands such a high probability heading into the March Oscar Awards. Prediction markets weight these precursor signals heavily, making it possible to watch a frontrunner's probability climb in near real time as the awards circuit progresses. Sinners' late surge in category count has given its Kalshi market renewed activity, reflecting the genuine competition its momentum has created.

Certain Oscar categories move together. A film that dominates the directing race tends to correlate strongly with winning the top prize. A strong Best Actor performance in a frontrunner like DiCaprio in One Battle After Another creates correlation between categories that prediction market participants track closely. Kalshi traders can use these correlations to identify undervalued positions: for example, if a film's winning probability rises in one major category, its screenplay's and director's probabilities often follow, creating informational signals across the board.

However, these award markets are not perfectly correlated, and sometimes they can be negatively correlated based on the specific criteria that each Oscar category considers. Researching the historical winners of the awards, the fine print on what is considered when choosing a winner, and who is voting on the Oscar winners is critical to understanding to what extent these award categories are correlated with one another.

Oscar pundits bring years of institutional knowledge and deep relationships with Academy members. But they operate on fixed publishing cycles and can't always capture the latest data signals in real time. Prediction markets like Kalshi offer a complementary and often faster-moving view of the race. Here's how the two approaches compare:

The most accurate forecasting typically combines both. Pundit analysis explains the why behind a film's momentum: the guild support, the campaigning, the critical narrative. Markets tell you how much the crowd believes it, priced in real time. Together, they provide a clearer picture than either offers alone.

The 98th Academy Awards are shaping up to be one of the most contested Oscars in recent memory. Sinners has made history with its record-breaking 16 nods and given Ryan Coogler's film a genuine late-season push. One Battle After Another holds its ground as the frontrunner, with market probabilities reinforcing what the precursor circuit has already suggested. Frankenstein, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, and Train Dreams round out a Best Picture field full of films with real artistic credibility and market-backed support.

Whether you follow the pundits, the precursors, or the probabilities, Kalshi's Oscar markets offer a real-time window into how the crowd is thinking. As final voting opens and closes between February 26 and March 5, those probabilities will keep moving, and the most informed Oscar watchers will be tracking both.

^{Kalshi is not affiliated with the Academy Awards.}

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}