Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has extended his lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's Texas Senate market as recent polls continue to show him with a narrow lead.
The Texas Senate race market now prices Talarico’s chances of victory at 60%, followed by Paxton at 40%.
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What do the polls say?
The Hill reported that a new poll from Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) shows Talarico leading with 49% of support, with Paxton at 44%. Only 3% said they were undecided.
The latest survey is the second consecutive TPOR tracking poll to show Talarico ahead of Paxton, although his lead narrowed from six points in August to five points in September.
Talarico's support among Black voters
Black voters overwhelmingly supported U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett over Talarico during the Democratic Senate primary, raising questions about whether Talarico could consolidate their support in the general election.
The New York Times’ J. David Goodman reported that during the Democratic Senate primary, Black voters turned out for Crockett and expressed disappointment that she lost the race.
“But as summer turned to fall, those feelings appeared to fade,” Goodman wrote.
Goodman reported that interviews with Black voters and political consultants found many were now supporting Talarico, with some citing their opposition to Paxton and others pointing to Talarico's outreach in Black communities.
“Most were far more turned off by his Republican opponent, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general,” Goodman wrote. “Some praised Mr. Talarico’s efforts to spend time in Black communities across Texas, speaking at churches and appearing on podcasts and radio shows with large Black audiences, like The Breakfast Club.”
More polls also show Talarico leading among Black voters. The University of Texas/Texas Politics Project’s June poll found Talarico with 67% support among Black voters, compared with 13% for Paxton.
Campaign spending
Both campaigns and outside groups are also pouring millions of dollars into advertising as Election Day approaches.
Houston Public Media reported that “Spending on advertising across all media is rapidly approaching the record total campaign spending on a Texas Senate race, which was previously set during the 2024 contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred.”
AdImpact reported that the Cruz-Allred election saw a record-setting $210 million in total spending. The Paxton-Talarico election is expected to more than double the record with $440 million in spending.
Talarico's campaign led in fundraising and advertising spending for much of the summer and largely had the airwaves to itself. That changed in early September, when the election entered the 60-day window in which federal law gives candidates access to discounted advertising rates. More than a dozen super PACs subsequently began spending to support Paxton and attack Talarico.
Control of the U.S. Senate
The Democratic Party also continues to widen its lead in the U.S. Senate election market.
The Senate control market currently prices Democratic control at 62% and Republican control at 38%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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