The Pro Football draft has finally arrived. After a fantastic collegiate season, there are many names and teams to monitor this year, especially in the opening round.
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Las Vegas is widely expected to select Heisman quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall selection. Kalshi traders currently price his odds of going first at 99%.
But the market for the #2 pick remains wide open.
New York (J) owns the No. 2 draft pick, and according to Kalshi’s market, Gang Green is eyeing a top-tier athlete on defense.
Per Kalshi, edge rushers Arvell Reese and David Bailey have the highest probabilities to be taken with the second pick. At this time, nearly $2.7M has been traded.
Bailey currently has a 52% likelihood to be drafted in the second spot. Meanwhile, Reese displays a 48¢ price tag.
Let’s dive into the details, and take a look at some specs on Reese and Bailey.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
#2 overall
Arvell Reese
The 20-year-old Reese was the outright favorite here from the end of January until early April. On April 3, Reese reached 75.6%. Bailey reflected a price of just 13¢ on that same day.
Should New York (or another team that might somehow inherit the No. 2 draft spot) choose Reese, Gotham will be getting an extremely dynamic defender. Reese — an All-American from Ohio State — stands at just over 6-foot-4. At the combine, he ran a 4.46 40-yard dash, showcasing a 1.58 10-yard split.
Given his athletic abilities, there are not many plays that Reese will find himself out of. He can thrive at different spots around the formations, which was regularly on display over his three years in Columbus. In college, he compiled 112 tackles, 13.5 tackles for loss, and seven sacks over 36 total games.
David Bailey
Bailey has a similar build to Reese, albeit slightly shorter and heavier. Still, an anonymous team executive stated that Bailey is the “best rusher in the draft, no doubt.” Of course, harassing opposing quarterbacks is one of the most sought-after traits on the gridiron.
Following three campaigns at Stanford, Bailey transferred to Texas Tech for the 2025 season, where his numbers truly exploded. He logged 14.5 of his 29 collegiate sacks last year at TTU. From there, Bailey forced three fumbles and recovered one as a senior.
As recently as January 28, Kalshi listed Bailey under 11¢ to be drafted second overall. Fast-forward to now, and the Irvine, CA, native is the market favorite (52¢) to do exactly that.
Bailey is the type of player that can live in his opponents’ backfield. His combination of speed and explosiveness will keep any offense busy. Expect pro-level tackles to have issues staying with Bailey in one-on-one matchups.
First-round selections
Kalshi is offering multiple markets pertaining to this year’s draft. When looking at players to be selected in the first round, both Reese and Bailey carry a 99% probability.
Other, more intriguing names in this category include Zion Young (47¢) and Avieon Terrell (30¢). Young starred at defensive end for Missouri, while Clemson’s Terrell is seen by many as a cornerback with high-end potential.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Pro football draft: #2 overall pick?
(Click here to visit Kalshi’s draft hub)
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