Senator Lindsey Graham died over the weekend at the age of 71.
The office of the longtime Republican senator said in a statement on Sunday: "On the evening of Saturday, July 11, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham passed away from a brief and sudden illness. Senator Graham's family appreciates prayers at this time and asks for privacy during this incredibly difficult period."
Graham's passing triggered two legal processes: one to name his replacement for the rest of his current term, and one to replace him as the Republican nominee for the upcoming November election.
Under South Carolina law, the governor has the power to name a replacement senator in the event of a vacancy. On Monday, South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster appointed Graham's sister, Darline Graham Nordone, to finish out the remainder of his term. She was sworn in on Tuesday.
Since Graham had already won the South Carolina Republican Senate nomination in June, a special primary election will be held to determine who replaces him on the November ballot. So far, only Mark Lynch has officially launched his candidacy for the special primary. He currently has a 4% chance of winning the nomination, with several rumored candidates outpacing him.
The current frontrunner is Rep. Russell Fry (SC-07), who has a 65% chance of securing the nomination. Fry was hand-picked by Trump in 2022 to run against GOP Rep. Tom Rice, who had voted to impeach Trump in 2021. Rep. Ralph Norman has also been linked to a possible candidacy, reportedly asking President Trump for his endorsement on Sunday. Norman has a 17% chance of appearing on the GOP ballot in November. Norman and Fry are followed by Governor Henry McMaster and Lt. Governor Pamela Evette, with 5% and 6% chances, respectively.
Currently, the GOP's odds of winning the South Carolina Senate election are at 85%. The winner of the special primary will take on Annie Andrews in November, who has a 16% chance of flipping the seat to the Democrats.
With Graham's seat staying in Republican hands through the midterms, and the South Carolina Senate seat remaining a GOP stronghold regardless of candidate, KPOW remains at +2.0 R.
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