The South Dakota Republican gubernatorial primary is headed to a runoff for the first time since the state's 1985 law requiring candidates to clear 35% of the vote to avoid one. The initial primary on June 2 saw four candidates each earn over 20% of the vote share, with Toby Doeden and Larry Rhoden topping the slate at 31% and 25%, respectively.
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Republican Gubernatorial Primary
Larry Rhoden became governor of South Dakota in January 2025 when Kristi Noem resigned to become U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, and he's now looking to earn a four-year term of his own. Rhoden is a longtime South Dakota politician who has served in both the state Senate and House of Representatives since first being elected in 2000. Toby Doeden, by contrast, is a businessman and entrepreneur who has never held public office; he's put at least $4 million of his own money into the campaign. A locally-commissioned poll in mid-July showed Rhoden with a sizable advantage over Doeden among likely runoff voters, moving the market drastically in his favor. Despite Doeden winning the first round, Rhoden now has a 96% chance of securing the nomination.
November Outlook
The winner of Tuesday's runoff will face former state Sen. Dan Ahlers in the general election this November. South Dakota hasn't elected a Democratic governor in over fifty years with 1974 being the last time a Democrat was elected to the state’s highest office. Currently, the GOP has a 94% chance of winning the seat again.
Kalshi’s American Power Index (KPOW)
The Kalshi American Power Index (KPOW), which tracks the real-time balance of political power between the two parties, held steady with a slight lean toward the GOP. Republicans' odds of holding the Senate after the midterms ticked up to 56%, while Democrats' odds of flipping the House grew to 84%. Looking past the midterms to 2028, Democrats have a 58% chance of winning the presidency.
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