Texas state Rep. James Talarico continues to lead Attorney General Ken Paxton in Kalshi's market for the state's U.S. Senate race. However, his price has been declining.
Traders now price Talarico’s chances at 62% compared to Paxton at 38%, a drop of four points since Oct. 5 when he was priced at 66%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Talarico’s town hall meeting
Talarico answered questions from Democratic, Republican and independent voters Wednesday night during a CNN town hall moderated by anchor Erin Burnett, in partnership with Jubilee Media.
Paxton did not participate. Burnett said CNN had invited his campaign to take part but received no response.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Talarico also addressed questions about his recent absence from the campaign trail, which he attributed to the flu. His absence had prompted unsubstantiated online rumors that a treatment facility subsequently denied.
“I think the responsible thing to do when you have something like the flu is to stay at home,” Talarico said.
Burnett pressed Talarico about his previous description of capitalism as an “oppressive system.” Talarico said his quote referred to the unfairness of political access and “crony capitalism.”
“What’s rewarded in this economy is people who can pay for access and control,” Talarico said. “I want to get back to the kind of capitalism we had in the middle of the 20th century in this country. I want competition, but it’s got to be fair competition.”
Talarico was also questioned about his stances on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Talarico said he opposes abolishing ICE but supports changes to how the agency operates.
“We need Immigration and Customs Enforcement,” Talarico said. “We don’t want masked men in unmarked vehicles coming through and terrorizing our communities.”
Talarico also criticized fellow Democrats, saying he would challenge his party when he disagreed with its priorities. He called former President Joe Biden’s border policies a failure, and outlined his plan to protect the oil-and-gas industry in Texas.
“I already have a religion and I already have a sports team,” Talarico said.
Paxton’s main funding source
New campaign-finance filings reveal that Elon Musk contributed $158 million to a Republican super PAC that financed efforts to support Paxton.
The New York Times reported that Musk donated $158 million to the Senate Leadership Fund in September. The Republican super PAC subsequently transferred the same amount to Texas PAC, an outside group supporting Paxton's Senate campaign.
“The donations from Mr. Musk, collectively some of the biggest ever recorded in American politics, have allowed Mr. Paxton to remain financially competitive even as he is vastly outraised by his Democratic opponent, James Talarico,” The Times reported.
Following the disclosure of Musk's financial support, Kalshi's Texas Senate market showed Talarico at 62% and Paxton at 38%, a 24-percentage-point difference in their market-implied probabilities.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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