Texas Senate race odds and predictions 2026

Last updated: October 15, 2026 [need to add web thumbnail]

News and updates (as of October 15, 2026):

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The Texas Senate race is one of the most competitive battlegrounds of the 2026 midterms. Republicans have held both of the state's Senate seats for decades, and Texans haven't elected a Democratic senator since 1988. But this year's matchup between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton has turned a usually safe seat into a close contest that could help decide control of the Senate.

Forecasts for the race draw from three sources: public polling, prediction markets, and analyst ratings. All three have shifted this year. Analysts moved the race from Likely Republican to Toss Up, public polls have shown a tight race since the primaries, and Kalshi's market flipped from favoring Paxton to favoring Talarico. Here's where the race stands, what the Texas Senate odds show, and what history says about each side's chances.

The 2026 Texas Senate race is an open-seat contest. Sen. John Cornyn, first elected in 2002, ran for a fifth term but lost the Republican nomination, so neither nominee on the November ballot is an incumbent.

The Texas Senate race schedule started with the primary on March 3, 2026, moved to a Republican runoff on May 26, and ends with the general election on November 3, 2026.

Democratic primary: State Rep. James Talarico defeated U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, about 53% to 46%. Kalshi traders had priced Talarico at 77% in the Democratic nominee market the day before the primary, according to Kalshi's primary odds coverage.

Republican primary: Paxton, Cornyn, and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt led a large field. Cornyn finished first in March, but Paxton won the runoff decisively after Trump's endorsement. See Kalshi's Paxton vs. Cornyn primary odds, the Texas primary preview, and the Republican nominee market.

Major-party nominees:

Third-party and write-in candidates: Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot. He ran in 2024 and received 2.4% of the vote. Several independents filed for the race, and Texas counts votes for declared write-in candidates, whose names don't appear on the ballot.

For key dates, registration deadlines and prediction market odds heading into Election Day, see Kalshi's guide to when the 2026 midterm elections are.

As of October 15, 2026, Kalshi traders price James Talarico at 62% and Ken Paxton at 38% to win the Texas Senate race. If you're asking who will win Texas Senate, the market's current answer is Talarico as the favorite, with Paxton still holding a meaningful chance. These Texas Senate predictions can change quickly before Election Day.

Kalshi's "Texas Senate winner?" market resolves by winning party. Each candidate has one binary yes/no contract, priced continuously in cents from 1 to 99 based on live trading. If that candidate's party wins the seat, the contract pays $1; if not, it pays $0. That means a candidate priced at 62 cents is trading at roughly a 62% market-implied chance of winning.

Here's how that works with the live prices as of writing:

James Talarico

Talarico, a state representative and former teacher, is the current favorite on Kalshi at 62%. He holds a large fundraising lead. His campaign announced on October 15 that it raised $64 million from July through September, a record for a Senate candidate in a single quarter, and more than $134 million since launching in September 2025. Paxton's campaign reported $18 million for the same quarter. He also leads narrowly in Kalshi's polling average, 48.4% to 45.5%.

Paxton, Texas' attorney general since 2015, is priced at 38%. He entered the race in April 2025 to challenge Cornyn from the right. In the March 3 primary, he finished a close second with 40.5% to Cornyn's 42.0%, which sent the race to a runoff. A week before the May 26 runoff, President Trump endorsed Paxton, and he went on to beat Cornyn by about 28 points.

In the general election, Paxton is running in a state where Republicans have won every Senate race since 1990, and outside groups are helping close his fundraising gap. Combined ad spending and reservations in the race have passed $500 million, according to AdImpact, and Elon Musk reportedly gave $10 million to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which supports Paxton. He has also faced scrutiny over newly surfaced recordings in October. Earlier in the race, Kalshi traders priced the Republican side as the clear favorite. It traded around 75% to 80% through late 2025, slipped to about 55% by spring 2026, before Talarico moved ahead in September.

Texas Democrats have been shut out of Senate wins since 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen was last reelected. No Democrat has won any statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the state has voted Republican for president in every election since 1980. That gives Republicans a strong baseline in every Texas Senate race.

But Senate margins in Texas have been narrower than that history suggests. The last two races with Ted Cruz on the ballot show how much the result can swing:

Two takeaways stand out in the Texas Senate race. First, Kalshi's market currently prices Talarico as the favorite at 62%, as of October 15, 2026. That's a reversal from earlier in the race, when traders priced Paxton ahead. Second, polls show a close contest, while history still favors Republicans in Texas.

That combination makes Texas one of the races to watch on election night, and one that could help decide control of the Senate.

To follow how the odds move through Election Day, track the live Texas Senate market on Kalshi and the rest of the 2026 midterm markets.

For the full Senate control picture heading into Election Day, see Kalshi's guide to who will control the Senate in 2026.

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