With Texas’s early voting officially closed, the state is headed toward its primary election day on Tuesday, March 3. Traders on Kalshi are already making their picks for the candidates they expect to appear on the general election ballot.
James Talarico vs. Jasmine Crockett
The market for the Democratic primary shows a heavy lead for Texas House Rep. James Talarico at 77% followed by U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett at 23%.
However, market forecasts for the Democratic primary don’t exactly match up with all of the early voting poll data.
A recent poll from the University of Texas’ Texas Politics Project surveyed 369 voters and found that Crockett had support from 56% of those surveyed, while Talarico only received 44%.
Ken Paxton vs. John Cornyn
There is also a clear favorite in Kalshi’s market for the Republican side of the Texas Senate primary. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is trading at 85% ahead of incumbent Senator John Cornyn, who is priced at 16%. U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt is currently trading at only 1%.
While the markets seem to think the race is Paxton’s to lose, the polls seem to think it’s still anyone’s race.
A UT poll shows Paxton polling at 36%, Cornyn at 34%, and Hunt at 26%. The UT poll surveyed 350 registered voters.
It’s also worth noting that if none of the candidates receive more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates will be forced into a runoff election in May. Kalshi’s traders currently price in an 82% chance of a runoff.
What will the November ballot look like for Texans?
Trading on the Texas Senate matchup market reflects similar expectations across both parties. Traders believe that Talarico and Paxton will be the final names on the ballot for the Texas Senate race at 67%, followed by Crockett and Paxton at 19%, and Talarico and Cornyn at 11%.
The takeaway
Kalshi traders now predict
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