Heading into today’s election, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is the clear favorite in Kalshi’s Texas Senate Republican primary market. However, traders are skeptical that he will score an outright win over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, and will likely face him once again in a May runoff.
Paxton vs. Cornyn
Paxton leads on the Texas Republican Senate nominee market at 82%. Cornyn, who is running for his fifth term, sits in a very distant second on the market at 17%. Rep. Wesley Hunt is priced at just 1%.
Will there be a runoff?
Texas primaries require a candidate to win more than 50% of the vote. If Paxton or Cornyn do not reach the 50% threshold, then a runoff election will be held with early voting scheduled for May 18–22, and the final election on May 26.
Even though Paxton holds a sizable lead on the Kalshi market over Cornyn, traders seem to think a runoff election is likely. The market for a candidate outright winning the Texas Republican Senate primary currently sits at 21%. In other words, there’s a 79% chance we’ll be seeing a runoff.
Recent polling seems to agree with traders on the chances of a runoff election. An Emerson College poll shows that Paxton only has a 4% lead over Cornyn.
Paxton’s projected margin of victory
Traders also seem to think the margin of victory for Paxton will be sizable, although not enough to avoid a runoff.
Right now, traders believe that Paxton will win the first round of the Texas GOP Senate primary by 9% or more at 45%, 3–6% at 24%, and 6–9% at 14%.
The same Emerson College poll shows that even though Hunt probably isn’t in the running for a primary runoff, he still picked up 17% among those polled. If the election heads to a runoff, Paxton and Cornyn will have to pick up as many of Hunt’s supporters as possible to secure the nomination for their party.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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