The 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals continue Wednesday (3 p.m. ET) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, where defending champion Argentina faces England, which is seeking its first World Cup final appearance since lifting the trophy in 1966.
Both sides needed extra time to escape the quarterfinals, and both arrive with a superstar carrying the load: Jude Bellingham has scored four goals across England's last two knockout rounds, while a 39-year-old Lionel Messi, widely expected to be playing in his final World Cup, extended his all-time World Cup scoring record to 21 goals in the round of 16. Kalshi traders have England as modest favorites, but this market has been among the tightest of the semifinal round.
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What's at stake
The winner advances to the World Cup final on Sunday, July 19, at MetLife Stadium, where they'll face Spain in the championship match.
For England, a final berth would end a 60-year wait for a return to the sport's biggest stage since their only title in 1966. For Argentina, reaching the final would put them one win from becoming the first side since Brazil (1958, 1962) to win back-to-back World Cups, a fitting final act for Messi.
Ahead of kickoff, Kalshi traders give England a 54% chance to advance past Argentina and into the final. Argentina checks in at 47%.
England's path here
England topped Group L with a 4-2 win over Croatia, a 0-0 draw with Ghana, and a 2-0 victory over Panama. The round of 32 required a Harry Kane second-half brace to come from behind and beat DR Congo 2-1. The round of 16 was more dramatic: Bellingham scored twice in 98 seconds against Mexico, Kane added a penalty, and England held on 3-2 despite playing more than 40 minutes a man down after Jarell Quansah's red card.
The quarterfinal against Norway needed extra time, but the story was familiar. Bellingham struck twice, including a 93rd-minute winner, in a 2-1 win that also saw a Norway goal ruled out on VAR review for a Haaland foul. That's four goals for Bellingham across the last two rounds alone, and he is now the clear engine of this England run. Kane sits at six goals for the tournament, well off the pace set by Mbappé and Messi.
The injury list is lighter than it looked a few days ago. Quansah is suspended after his red card and misses the semifinal outright, and Jordan Henderson, who broke his wrist celebrating the win over Mexico and had surgery, is unlikely to feature, though he hasn't been fully ruled out for a potential final. Declan Rice, who was battling a stomach bug and lower-back tightness through the Norway match, trained fully on Monday and is expected to start. Ezri Konsa, who came off late against Norway with a hamstring cramp, is also expected to be available, with Reece James still unlikely to be risked from the start at right-back.
Argentina's path here
Argentina won all three group games, beating Algeria 3-0, Austria 2-0, and Jordan 3-1 to top Group J, then survived Cape Verde 3-2 in the round of 32. The round of 16 produced the tournament's signature moment: Messi missed a first-half penalty and Egypt built a 2-0 lead through Yasser Ibrahim and Mostafa Zico, before Argentina scored three times in the final 11 minutes. Messi set up Cristian Romero, then leveled it himself with a shot off the crossbar, before Enzo Fernández headed in a stoppage-time winner to complete the 3-2 comeback. Messi's equalizer was his 21st career World Cup finals goal, extending the all-time scoring record he had claimed three weeks earlier against Austria.
The quarterfinal against Switzerland also went to extra time. Alexis Mac Allister headed in a Messi corner in the 10th minute, Dan Ndoye equalized for the Swiss in the 67th, and Breel Embolo was shown a second yellow card for simulation in the 72nd and sent off before Julián Álvarez's 25-yard strike and a stoppage-time Lautaro Martínez goal sealed a 3-1 win. Messi, Álvarez, and Lautaro give Lionel Scaloni's side the tournament's deepest strike-partnership rotation, with Enzo Fernández directing things from the No. 10 role.
Argentina's injury report is close to empty. Messi took an accidental knock to the face from Granit Xhaka in the Switzerland match but played the full 120 minutes and is expected to start. No other injuries or suspensions have been confirmed in the squad.
The bigger picture: tournament winner odds
Spain leads the outright World Cup winner market at 57.4% after advancing from Tuesday's semifinal. England sits second at 22.8%, with Argentina at 19.6%, meaning whoever wins Wednesday will enter the final as the underdog against Spain.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
Jude Bellingham has scored four goals across England's last two matches. Messi, the World Cup's all-time leading scorer with 21 career goals, is fit and expected to start after taking a facial knock against Switzerland.
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