Just a few days after the arrest of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed lawmakers of President Donald Trump’s intention to buy the territory of Greenland, causing related Kalshi markets to spike.
Traders pushed the possibility of President Trump buying at least part of Greenland in the next two years up to 37%. The market jumped by 18% following Rubio’s remarks to lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Monday.
Rubio’s remarks on Greenland came during a briefing regarding Venezuela to lawmakers on the armed services and foreign policy committees. According to the New York Times, he did not include specific details on how the president planned to buy Greenland, but Trump has asked aides to draft a plan on acquiring the territory without using military force.
Greenland, the 51st U.S. State?
News of the briefing created similar reactions in other markets. Traders increased the chances of the U.S. taking control of any part of Greenland to 40%. The market has jumped by 2.8% since Rubio’s late Monday briefing.
Greenland is also the current leader on the next U.S. state market. The Danish nation topped the list of regions that could become the 51st U.S. state, but only with an 8% chance. That’s down from the 8.2% trading rate set on Monday.
Why Greenland?
The New York Times’ Amelia Nierenberg and Maya Tekeil recently laid out some of the reasons President Trump and his allies are so eager to take over the region and make it an American territory.
President Trump has said on more than one occasion that Denmark is not doing enough to keep the region safe. Greenland also offers a “geostrategic location” that already houses a U.S. military base “specializing in missile defense,” according to the New York Times.
Some argue that Greenland’s strategic position inside part of the Arctic Circle would also give the U.S. a huge military advantage in naval warfare. The area could provide “an outpost in an important naval corridor connecting the Atlantic Ocean and the Arctic, where climate change is melting the ice and making once unnavigable territory a theater of competition.”
Greenland could also provide more than just military advantages. The island is chock-full of “huge stores of rare-earth minerals” that are used to make lots of high-tech products and would give America an edge over China’s dominance over those global mineral markets.
However, many are skeptical of such a plan, and believe it would be a strategic blunder that could provoke a global backlash against the U.S.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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