Traders are responding sharply as President Donald Trump threatens to use tariffs and other measures in an attempt to take control of Greenland.
Traders not price in a 44% chance that Trump will buy at least part of arctic Island by the end of his term in 2029, an increase of 25.7 percentage points since Jan. 2.
The same market now shows a 27% chance that Trump will purchase at least part of the island before 2027, and 13% he will purchase a portion of Greenland before May 1, 2026. Both probabilities jumped sharply since hitting a low on Jan. 11.
Traders also price in a 46% chance that the US will take control over a portion of Greenland before the end of Trump’s term in 2029. That’s an 18.5 point increase since trading began on Jan. 9.
“No going back”
Recently, President Trump has taken more aggressive steps to aquire the Island. He has threatened to impose sweeping 10% import taxes on goods from eight European nations. As a result, some the U.S.’s closest NATO allies have warned that such a move could rupture long-standing relationships that were once thought to be unshakeable.
Despite the warnings, Trump has doubled down, saying there is “no going back,” in social media posts on his Truth Social account, according to Reuters. He also shared AI-generated images depicting himself standing in the region holding a U.S. flag, as well as images showing him speaking with leaders in the Oval Office next to a map of Canada and Greenland covered in the U.S. flag.
“Not a game”
Meanwhile, officials from Greenland and the European Union are not backing down from their vows to fight any U.S. attempt to take control of the region.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen promised to push back against the import taxes in a way that would be “unflinching, united, and proportional.” She cited a finalized trade deal between the U.S. and EU reached in July, saying that “a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something,” according to the Associated Press.
“We consider the people of the United States not just our allies, but our friends,” von der Leyen added. “And plunging us into a downward spiral would only aid the very adversaries we are both so committed to keeping out of the strategic landscape.”
The remarks underscore the growing risk that trade retaliation, rather than territorial expansion, could become the first concrete consequence of Trump’s Greenland push.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Trump buying at least part of Greenland by the end of his current term: 44%
The U.S. taking control of any part of Greenland: 46%
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