Happy Sunday, traders.
Trying to guess which politician is going to be elected is tough. You can try to base it on their perceived popularity in mainstream media, talk to your friends, or rely on polls. And if you're a masochist, you can even bring it up at a family dinner. But at the end of the day, you never know until the votes are counted.
But figuring out who will be the next candidate for positions that aren't elected by the public is a whole different animal. We don't get to vote, so decisions aren't based on public opinion.
That, though, is the beauty of prediction markets. They don't rely on any one individual's opinion; instead, it's thousands of opinions and predictions condensed into one forecast. On that note, let's dive into how our prediction markets are figuring out the newest Trump administration vacancy: The Press Secretary.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. See full disclaimer below.
The press secretary decision:
On August 12, President Donald Trump announced that his press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, would be stepping away from the role at the end of the month. There's no arguing that the job is grueling. Like all presidents, Trump comes under a lot of fire, and as the press secretary, you've gotta be able to roll with the punches. You can only take that kind of pressure for so long.
Leavitt will be gone in only a couple of weeks, and there's currently no sign as to when the White House will announce the replacement. You'd probably think that they'd find a replacement by the end of the month, but it's likely not that simple. This is NOT an easy role to fill. If you take a look at our markets, you see that only 40% of people believe that the announcement will come before September 8th. It's even possible for Trump to continue using a set of rotating fillers until he's confident in his next pick.
In all honesty, Trump delaying his decision here does make sense. He has to balance finding a replacement who is both highly suited for the role and meets his loyalty requirements. This may be hard to find. He certainly has a ton of people in his web that are loyal, but this is a tough job. You need to be able to field hard questions on the fly, while representing the president's best interests. This is easier said than done.
In terms of his options, traders seem to think his three most likely options are Scott Jennings, Anna Kelly, and Natalie Harp. Let's run through them quickly.
Scott Jennings: He’s a Republican strategist and CNN commentator who has been a big defender of Trump in mainstream media. He’s incredibly experienced on camera and is used to live debates. In terms of credentials, he may be the best pick. The biggest factor for him lies in loyalty. He comes from the old-school Republican world and has criticized Trump in the past.
Anna Kelly: She's currently the principal deputy press secretary, acting directly under Leavitt. If Trump was trying to go for continuity, she makes perfect sense.
Natalie Harp: She's been a longtime aide to Trump, and reportedly the two are very close. She doesn't have the same experience as Kelly or Jennings, but if loyalty was what the president was optimizing for, she could be slotted for the job.
Alina Habba: The reality here is the odds around these candidates are rapidly changing. Even just a couple of days ago, our markets had Alina Habba at nearly 35%, just for her to essentially disqualify herself hours later (along with a shout out to Kalshi traders). Any of the previously mentioned replacements could be in a similar bucket.
In the next couple of weeks, we're likely to see a number of other candidates who rise in the ranks of probability. Rather than go into those, we'd rather propose the obvious choice most people aren't thinking of: Donald Trump himself…
Just think about it: who can speak for the man better than himself? He has a ton of public speaking experience. He’s used to answering press questions on the fly. And no one’s more loyal to Trump than Trump himself.
We think he’d make the greatest press secretary of all time. And we’re not alone. Just check out the meme that he posted to Truth Social; he agrees.
Jokes aside (don't email us about this), we'll keep following this. If you want to stay up to date on who the public thinks is going to be next, and stay informed on other political matters, you can use this link here. Until next week.
Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
