The First Tribal Nation to Enter Prediction Markets

Today, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first sovereign Tribal nation in the country to launch a prediction market app through its newly established subdivision, SaltTrade Derivatives, a Tribal-owned enterprise. It's a first for the Tribe, and a first for our industry.

As prediction markets become an increasingly important part of the regulated financial system, Tribal nations are beginning to consider what these markets could mean for their own economic development. Tunica-Biloxi is showing what innovation in Indian Country can look like. The Tribe is embracing prediction markets because they provide an innovative way for people to engage and trade on topics they care about, outside of traditional financial markets. 

Indian Country should have more paths to economic self-determination, not fewer. When a new industry grows quickly, it can create understandable concern among legacy institutions. That concern carries particular weight for Tribal nations, whose sovereignty and economic institutions play an important role in America. We shouldn't dismiss the possibility that new technology could affect these institutions, or simply ask Tribal leaders to trust that it won't. We have an obligation to examine the evidence honestly, understand where the risks are real, and build models that let Tribal nations participate. 

Tunica-Biloxi has chosen to engage with this new market directly through SaltTrade Derivatives. SaltTrade Derivatives is using Kalshi's federally regulated exchange infrastructure to bring its software to life in the same way other institutions have entered into prediction markets by using our infrastructure. In doing so, the Tribe is making a point I've believed for a long time and that the wider debate has often missed: prediction markets and Tribal economic development don't have to be at odds. They can reinforce each other, and the future doesn't have to be organized around conflict. It can be organized around opportunity, allowing Tribal nations to participate directly in a new and growing market, and to help shape what it becomes.

When we founded Kalshi, we began with a simple belief: people should be able to predict and manage uncertainty created by the world around them, whether they want to increase their exposure to that uncertainty or reduce it. Financial markets already let businesses hedge the price of oil, grain, currencies, and interest rates. The world has evolved, and so have the risks people are exposed to. Most of the financial uncertainty people experience today comes from discrete events, including elections, sports, weather, public policy, and technology. A regulated market to capture that wider set of risks will inevitably become an important piece of economic infrastructure. Tunica-Biloxi is putting that same belief to work on its own terms, building something that lets its people do exactly that, under its own name.

Much of the debate assumes that every dollar in a prediction market is a dollar taken from a Tribal casino. The evidence says otherwise. Tribal gaming generated a record $46.2 billion in gross gaming revenue in fiscal year 2025. This represents the largest annual gain on record outside the pandemic recovery year, and growth accelerated in most National Indian Gaming Commission regions during the same period prediction markets expanded, including regions where Tribes had sued prediction market operators. 

The reason is that these are fundamentally different products serving different kinds of economic activity. Tribal gaming is a destination and hospitality experience. Prediction markets are digital financial exchanges where participants trade positions on future events. One does not need to displace the other.

An exchange is not a house that takes the other side of a wager. An exchange brings buyers and sellers together and remains outcome-neutral. As an exchange, Kalshi earns transaction fees rather than profiting from customer losses and does not restrict customers simply for winning. Unified, nationwide liquidity is essential: fragmenting buyers and sellers across isolated markets means fewer counterparties, wider spreads, and less competitive prices. A shared exchange brings those participants together, improving pricing and opportunities to trade. These markets also attract distinct audiences: industry CEOs have reported that about 90% of prediction market volume in several states came from accounts with no sportsbook activity, suggesting a distinct audience. As traditional exchanges like CME, ICE, and Nasdaq move into this space, Tribal nations have an opportunity to participate in that growth as owners of their own businesses. That's the premise of this partnership: Tribal ownership backed by the liquidity of a unified, nationwide exchange.

SaltTrade Derivatives is the brand; Kalshi is the nationwide liquidity. SaltTrade Derivatives operates the mobile app and manages its branding, marketing, and customer experience. Kalshi runs the federally regulated exchange underneath: matching, clearing, custody, and surveillance. That structure gives SaltTrade Derivatives access to something that would be difficult and expensive for any one partner to build on its own: a federally regulated exchange with nationwide liquidity from day one. The app connected to a shared exchange gets the depth of a large marketplace, and every customer it brings makes that marketplace better for everyone else. SaltTrade Derivatives benefits from the network, and the network benefits from SaltTrade Derivatives.

This model could be particularly meaningful for Tribes that haven't benefited equally from the existing gaming economy. According to a 2025 report by the National Indian Gaming Commission, less than 9% of Tribal gaming operations account for more than half of all Indian gaming revenue, while the majority of facilities split just 5% of the pie.

I understand why some Tribal leaders view prediction markets with concern, and I don't dismiss that. Tribal sovereignty also means different Tribes will make different choices. Tunica-Biloxi moved first, and moving first carries weight: early partners help shape the standards and precedents that will guide how other Tribal nations engage with this industry going forward. Not every Tribe will reach the same conclusion, and none should be expected to. But Tunica-Biloxi has shown what it can look like when a sovereign Tribal nation examines this model on its own terms and decides, for itself, that it's worth building. The debate can no longer be reduced to prediction markets on one side and Tribes on the other. What's clear is that regulated national infrastructure and Tribal entrepreneurship can develop together. One does not have to lose for the other to win.

Tarek Mansour
CEO
Kalshi