Currently, traders price the chances of a “blue wave,” where the Democrats end up with at least 218 seats in the House and at least 49 seats in the Senate, at 83%.
But Kalshi's “blue tsunami” market is also on the rise.
Traders now price in a 47% chance the Democrats will hold at least 235 House seats and 51 or more Senate seats after the midterms.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Republicans face midterm concerns
President Trump’s net approval rating is at one of the lowest points of both of his terms. The Economist reported that “Trump’s net approval rating continues to languish at -25” and “The coalition of voters who carried Mr. Trump to victory in 2024 is falling apart.”
His net approval rating in each state is also low. The President is carrying a net positive rating in just four states: Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, and West Virginia.
Republican leaders have also publicly acknowledged voter frustration ahead of the midterms. The Hill obtained audio of Vice President JD Vance addressing House Republicans in a closed-door meeting. Vance urged lawmakers to focus their campaign message on addressing voter frustrations rather than framing the election primarily as “common sense” versus “communist crazy.”
“Right now we have a country where people are frustrated,” Vance said. “You got to level with them. You got to be honest about those frustrations, and you got to be honest about the ways in which the Democrats caused the problems that you guys have been very diligently fixing over the past 18 months.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson also “sent lawmakers home early on Wednesday, canceling votes on Thursday and scrapping the last two weeks of the September session. He argued that much of the legislative agenda has been stalled in the Senate and that lawmakers could spend the extra time on the campaign trail.”
Rep. Nancy Mace offered a stark assessment of the midterms Wednesday. She noted that if there is a “blue tsunami” at the midterms, it could be a referendum on future elections.
“This midterm is going to be a f---ing bloodbath,” Mace said to reporters on Wednesday. “There is a lot at stake. The Senate is at stake. The House is at stake. The future of our country is at stake. I would tell you that the midterms of 2026 are a precursor to 2028.”
Key Senate races
Democratic candidates also lead several individual Senate markets.
The market for the Texas Senate race shows Democrat state Rep. James Talarico at 57% and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton at 44%.
Kalshi’s Maine’s Senate winner market shows Democrat Troy Jackson at 68%, and Republican Sen. Susan Collins at 33%.
Eyes are also on the Michigan Senate winner market where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed sits at 64%, and Republican Mike Rogers sits at 37%.
While Democratic candidates lead Kalshi's Senate markets in Texas, Maine and Michigan, the “blue tsunami” contract sets a considerably higher bar.
The Takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Blue tsunami this year: 47.0%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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