Exactly 46 years ago, the "Miracle on Ice" happened. The United States defeated the Soviet Union in the semifinals of the 1980 Winter Olympics in New York, mounting a comeback from a 3-2 deficit in the second period. Two days later, the American team defeated Finland 4-2 to win the gold medal, and the Soviets won the silver. Amid the height of the Cold War and the peak of U.S.-USSR tensions, this game marked a resounding American victory and a revival of patriotism and national unity.

Yesterday, the United States defeated Canada 2-1 in overtime of the gold medal game of the 2026 Milan Winter Olympics after another massive comeback. Coincidentally, the U.S. women's team had just defeated the Canadian team three days prior, also in the gold medal match, also winning 2-1. This marked another huge victory for American pride, off the back of two overtime thriller golden goals from Megan Keller and Jack Hughes.

However, one could also view these two consecutive victories as revenge against America's northern neighbor. Almost exactly a year ago, at the start of the second Trump administration's tariff threats, America and Canada's hockey teams faced off in the internationally televised Four Nations Face Off. The U.S. started by beating Canada 3-1 in Montreal, a game where Canadian fans famously booed "The Star-Spangled Banner" amidst discussions of Canada becoming the 51st state.

Incredibly, there were also three fights in the first nine seconds of the game, with players recognizing the heated geopolitical rivalry immediately and dropping their gloves alongside the puck. Canada ended up defeating the USA five days later in the final, off the back of an incredible performance from goalie Jordan Binnington and the overtime thriller game winner from Connor McDavid. After that scuffle last year, American fans were probably feeling pretty good this morning.

Now, as much as we should be proud of the uniquely American success story that happened on Sunday, we should also be proud of the uniquely American invention that priced its outcome: prediction markets.

From the puck drop at 8:10 a.m. ET to the game's end at 10:54 a.m. ET, the odds on Kalshi fluctuated wildly. Odds of an American victory were priced at 47% before the game and fell as low as 40% at 10:27 until the team clinched victory from the jaws of defeat. With each missed shot, save, and goal, the odds on Kalshi rose and fell to reflect the opinions of traders and gurus alike.

Let's go through and analyze every peak and valley of this thrilling hockey game to see how efficient prediction markets like Kalshi are at forecasting real-time odds.

At 8:19 a.m., Matt Boldy scored the U.S.’s first goal. America's odds of victory shot up from 47% to 59%.

At 9:19 a.m. ET (second period), Canada secured a 5-on-3 power play. Odds for America quickly dipped from 66% to 53%. However, they recovered in minutes, as Connor Hellebuyck put up a stonewall defense to improve to 17-for-17 on the penalty kill. Highlights included a stonewall save on Connor McDavid (who, as you recall, scored the game-winner a year ago).

American confidence was high after the power play, with odds climbing up to 71%. However, they fell immediately following a goal from Cale Makar with 1:44 left in the second period, leaving the teams all tied up. Odds were effectively 50/50 going into the third. It also cannot be overstated the speed at which Kalshi traders priced this information. The odds fell within milliseconds of the goal.

Odds were mostly stagnant for 40 minutes following the equalizing goal, with Canada returning to their position as a slight favorite at 55%. They had been dominant all period but hadn't found a way to convert it to goals, including a Nathan MacKinnon miss on an open net and Charlie McAvoy making a huge save on Tom Wilson.

An American power play, followed by a Canadian power play, occurred late into the third, but neither team was able to break through. During this time, American odds rose to 62%, fell a staggering 22 points to 40%, and then equalized at 48%. We were ready for a thrilling overtime.

The overtime puck was dropped at 10:48 a.m. ET, marking the fifth overtime game in the Olympics and the second for both the American and Canadian teams. Five minutes later, at 10:53 a.m. ET, Jack Hughes scored the golden goal for America, and the rest was history!

This gold medal game was a great example of several things: determination, team spirit, American exceptionalism, and the power of prediction markets. With the ability to respond to real-world changes in seconds, the predictive power of tools like Kalshi can have massive effects on sports, politics, and culture writ large. It was a lot of fun to go through the live odds again, attempting to stitch them up with how the events really unfolded. As an American citizen who grew up in Canada but is now working in San Francisco, just don't ask me who I was cheering for :).

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