The 2026 World Cup begins tomorrow, and Kalshi users are actively trading on which country will take home the trophy. And while there is no odds on favorite, Spain, France, and England are currently priced as the most likely teams to win the title, respectively.
Who will reach the Semifinals?
Traders on the semifinals qualifiers market are pricing Spain’s chances to qualify at 46%, followed by France at 42%, and England at 36%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the FIFA World Cup.
Who will make the finals?
Meanwhile, the final qualifiers market shows a similar outcome with Spain at 29%, France at 28%, and England at 23%.
Who will win?
Most importantly, the market for the World Cup winner shows a very close race. Spain leads the market with a 16.5% chance, followed by France at 16.3%, and England at 10.2%.
Spain
The tournament kicks off tomorrow, June 11, with the first two matches between Mexico and South Africa and South Korea against the Czech Republic.
The Athletic reports that one of Spain’s star players, winger Lamine Yamal, is back “in contention” for the World Cup following a hamstring injury he sustained in his left leg in April.
The team didn’t expect Yamal to be ready for the games since he wasn’t part of the team’s warmups. Spain’s head coach Luis de la Fuente said he’ll be ready to play in their first match against Saudi Arabia on June 21.
The Guardian reported that Spain’s La Liga league named Yamal “Player of the Season” and de la Fuente compared him to the great Lionel Messi.
“Lamine was born for this,” de Le Fuente said. “He has a daring character. Maybe that [pressure] would have overwhelmed you or me. But these guys are special.”
France
Traders expect France to be one of Spain's biggest challengers, thanks to some key players who the team confirmed are back to playing strength.
ESPN reported that defender William Saliba is ready to play for France’s World Cup run and is expected to start “in their last friendly before the tournament against Northern Ireland in Lille on Monday.”
Saliba sustained a concerning back injury and “only trained twice” with the team since he joined France for the World Cup last Tuesday. The team says “his back has been sore at times, but he feels much better and is ready to play and travel to the US with the wider group on Wednesday.”
France's market position may also reflect concerns about balance elsewhere in the squad. DAZN reported that France’s Kylian Mbappe “could be a weakness for his national team at the World Cup.”
The striker is great at attacking “but often decides not to help out on defensive duties, which could become a weak link for France during the World Cup.”
England
England may be a contender in this year’s World Cup, but some of their top players have had to deal with some serious injuries this season.
ESPN reported that fullback Tino Livramento “has been plagued by injuries this season, suffering a knee injury in September before having his season ended by a thigh issue.”
Fullbacks Reece James and Djed Spence also sustained hamstring and jaw injuries. If they can’t recover in time, England may have a hard time with its starting defensive line.
With Spain and France nearly tied across multiple World Cup markets, traders appear to be weighing roster health and player availability as much as overall talent. As the tournament approaches, even small injury developments could reshape the market's outlook.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Spain winning the World Cup: 16.5%
France winning the World Cup: 16.3%
England winning the World Cup: 10.2%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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