The Tampa Bay Rays are favored to take Game 3 on Monday, but their chances of capturing their first ever World Series title have dwindled.
The Rays jumped out to a 4-0 first inning lead in Game 2, but through the game’s final eight innings the offense sputtered and the defense, nor pitching from ace Drew Rasmussen, was as sharp as needed to hold down the Brewers, who earned a 5-4 victory.
The pair of one-run victories in Milwaukee have put the Brewers in prime position for their first title. Nearly 81% of MLB teams that have generated a 2-0 series lead in the World Series have gone on to win the title.
To disrupt that statistic, the Rays will need to find a way to win Game 3. Kalshi traders make their odds 53% as of Monday morning.
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World Series Game 3 Odds: Rays favored in home ballpark
Right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta had a rough start to his 2026 campaign when pitching for the New York Mets. But after being dealt to the Rays, he’s unlocked a former version of himself, one the Milwaukee Brewers know quite well. Peralta pitched for the Brewers for eight seasons before being traded to the Mets in the offseason. The Mets dealt him to the Rays at the trade deadline.
As such, now he’ll need to square off against his former team in World Series Game 3, looking to extend an incredible stretch of pitching which saw him earn ALCS MVP honors.
Across three starts and one relief appearance this postseason, Peralta has thrown 16.2 innings and allowed just two earned runs, good for a 1.08 ERA.
But the Brewers represent a level up offensively. Milwaukee finished the regular season tied for first in wRC+ against right-handed starters and led the league in on-base percentage and batting average against the handedness.
On the other hand, the Rays will draw left-handed starter Robert Gasser. Like the rest of the Milwaukee staff, Gasser has been fantastic this postseason, throwing nine innings over the course of two starts and allowing just one earned run.
Southpaws have been a challenge for the Rays this season, with the team ranking 26th against lefties in terms of wRC+ during the regular season. Even if they are able to get through Gasser, the Milwaukee bullpen features lefties JoJo Romero, DL Hall, and Aaron Ashby, and has been nearly unhittable, collectively posting a 1.23 ERA in nearly 51 innings this postseason.
Nevertheless, Kalshi traders make the Rays, who posted a 55-26 record at home during the regular season, slight favorites at 53% in Game 3.
The Rays overcame a 2-1 deficit in the ALCS, but they face a stiffer test against baseball’s top team in the World Series.
As it stands, Kalshi traders price the Rays chances of storming back at just 17.3% prior to Game 3.
Regardless of the Game 3 winner, Game 4 will take place on Tuesday in Tampa Bay. In early trading, Kalshi traders make the Brewers slight favorites on the road in that game, pricing them at 50%.
Should a Game 5 be necessary, it will take place on Wednesday in Tampa Bay. If Games 6 or 7 are required, those will take place back in Milwaukee after a travel day.
Through two games, Brewers catcher William Contreras is the favorite for World Series MVP, according to Kalshi traders.
Contreras is trading around 38% to earn the award while outfielder Jackson Chourio is trading at 17% and left-handed reliever Aaron Ashby is priced at 15%.
In their two home victories, Contreras has notched four hits in eight at-bats and driven in two runs for Milwaukee. Plus, he’s thrown out multiple runners attempting to steal and helped manage a pitching staff through two tense one-run victories.
Chourio has posted similar stats, netting four hits in his nine at-bats, while stealing two bases and cutting down a runner at the plate with an outfield assist during Game 2.
Though less heralded coming into the series, Brewers reliever Aaron Ashby has been dominant all postseason, pitching 15.2 innings without allowing a single run. That includes more than three innings of World Series play in which he’s only allowed one hit.
Down 2-0, the highest priced Ray player is Junior Caminero, who is trading around 6% to win the award.
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