The Ballon d’Or, soccer’s most illustrious individual award, will be awarded to the sport's top player of the past season when its biggest names gather at the award’s 70th ceremony at the London Palladium on Monday evening.
Among the top contenders and the award’s 30 nominees are international superstars Harry Kane, Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, and Lionel Messi, among others.
Prior to the award ceremony, Kalshi traders make Kane, the captain of England's World Cup squad and a top goal scorer from last season, the favorite at 73%.
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2026 Ballon d'Or Odds: Kane favored over Mbappé, Yamal
Kane, who scored 61 club goals during the 2025-2026 season, has been in a leading position for the Ballon d’Or since July according to Kalshi traders, but his odds have shifted in recent days.
Priced at 21% in July, Kane’s odds rose as high as 76% in the last week of trading. The English striker put on a show for North American soccer fans during this year’s World Cup, scoring six goals over the course of the tournament as England stormed to the semi-finals and an eventual third place finish.
In that third place match, which England won 6-4, Kane took the pitch opposite France’s Kylian Mbappé, who Kalshi traders give the second best odds to win the Ballon d’Or.
Mbappé's odds have risen around 17 percentage-points in the last week of trading, rising from below 5% to trade around 22% on the day of the ceremony.
Despite being one of the game's biggest stars, Mbappé has yet to win a Ballon d'Or in his nine nominations. His best ever finish was third in 2023, a result he is likely to at least equal at this year's ceremony, according to Kalshi traders, who price him at 93% to finish within the top-3.
Joining the pair is young Spanish star Lamine Yamal, who is priced at 89% to finish in the top-3 and 9% to win the Ballon d’Or, an award he finished second for last year. The Spaniard was integral to a Spanish World Cup victory and scored 25 goals with 20 assists during his 2025-2026 club and country campaigns.
Messi, Rodri, Olise fighting for Top 5 Finish
The Ballon d’Or, which has 30 nominees, asks 100 international voters to rank their top ten players based on their individual performance, team achievements, and class and fair play. Players are awarded ranking points on a descending scale, with the top point-getter ultimately winning the award.
Markets currently imply that Kane, Mbappé, and Yamal are the likely top trio, but a handful of the game’s top stars are fighting for a place inside the top five ranking spots for the Ballon d’Or, according to Kalshi traders.
For example, eight-time Ballon d’Or winner Lionel Messi is priced at less than 1% to win a ninth time, but Kalshi traders currently price him at 65% to finish inside the top 5 for the award.
Joining Messi in that range is World Cup winner Rodri, who won the award in 2024. Priced at 55% to finish inside the top 5, odds for Rodri have fallen over the course of the last week, dropping 20 percentage points during that period.
French forward Michael Olise has seen his odds increase during that time, jumping 16 percentage points to 44%. Olise notched 27 goals and 35 assists during his 2025-2026 season play and helped France make it to the World Cup semifinals.
Others receiving attention from Kalshi traders include Paris Saint-Germain forward Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (32%), last year's Ballon d'Or winner Ousmane Dembélé (19%), and Paris Saint-Germain midfielder and World Cup winner, Fabián Ruiz (12%).
When Is the 2026 Ballon d'Or Ceremony?
The 70th Ballon d’Or ceremony will take place in London, England at the London Palladium on Monday and is expected to start around 4:00 p.m. ET.
Aside from the men’s Ballon d’Or, other key awards will be handed out at the event, like those for the best female player, best young men’s and women’s talent, as well as the best coach, club, and goalkeeper for men and women’s soccer.
Kalshi’s markets offer data on the following:
Kopa Trophy (men’s young talent of the year)
Johan Cruyff Trophy (men’s coach of the year)
Yashin Trophy (men’s goalkeeper of the year)
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