November 4, 2026. Vote totals as of 6:15 PM ET remain unofficial. Kalshi prices below are dated historical observations.
Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, according to AP's race call and NBC News's reported results.
Kalshi traders priced Talarico's chances of winning at 75% as of 5 p.m. ET on Nov. 3, up from 71% at noon that day.
Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton counties, together with Harris County, supplied 1,041,511 net votes for Talarico over Paxton. That accounts for 87.1% of his reported statewide lead, according to calculations from the county returns.
Source: NBC News Texas Senate results
Who won the 2026 Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, according to the Associated Press.
Talarico led by 1,195,369 votes, or 12.09 percentage points, in the Nov. 4 NBC News results update. The feed estimated 99% of expected votes counted.
Source: NBC News Texas Senate results
Candidate | Votes | Vote share |
|---|---|---|
James Talarico | 5,445,121 | 55.08% |
Ken Paxton | 4,249,752 | 42.99% |
Ted Brown | 190,258 | 1.92% |
Reported returns as of 6:15 p.m. ET on Nov. 4. Shares calculated from the listed votes; rounding may affect the sum. Returns are unofficial.
Source: NBC News Texas Senate results
Where did Talarico build his lead?
County or group | Talarico minus Paxton |
|---|---|
Dallas, Tarrant, Collin and Denton | +585,674 |
Harris | +455,837 |
Hidalgo and Cameron | +133,370 |
Remaining 247 counties | +20,488 |
Texas total | +1,195,369 |
Original calculation from the same results update. Each county appears in one group.
Source: NBC News Texas Senate results
The four selected North Texas counties contributed 585,674 net votes, more than Harris County. Hidalgo and Cameron added another 133,370.
Source: NBC News Texas Senate results
The remaining 247 counties include large Democratic and Republican margins that partly offset each other. Their combined total is not a measure of rural Texas. The table shows contributions to this election's margin, rather than gains since a previous election.
What shaped the race?
The Texas Tribune identified North Texas suburbs, South Texas and Harris County as areas to watch before Election Day. Its reporting focused on whether Paxton could consolidate Republican support and whether Talarico could extend Democratic strength around the major metros and border communities.
The AP Voter Poll found that about three-quarters of Texas voters under 30 and roughly six in ten Hispanic voters backed Talarico. Those statewide survey findings add evidence about his coalition alongside the geographic returns.
Source: AP reporting published by WRAL
The candidates offered different messages in the final stretch. The Tribune described Talarico emphasizing working-class, cross-partisan and faith-based appeals, while Paxton urged Republicans to defend the state's conservative identity.
The returns show where Talarico accumulated his lead. Campaign reporting and voter surveys help explain the coalition, but do not isolate how many votes any one message or issue produced.
What does Texas mean for Senate control?
Texas gave Democrats a pickup rather than a hold, and their first Senate election victory in the state since 1988. AP reported that Democrats won control of the incoming Senate as Republican-held seats flipped in several states.
Republicans entered the election with a 53-47 advantage over the Democratic-aligned caucus. Democrats needed four net gains to reach an outright 51-seat majority. Texas contributed one of those gains.
Source: Kalshi Senate-control guide
How did the Texas Senate odds move?
Time | Kalshi chance of a Democratic win |
|---|---|
Nov. 2, noon ET | 76% |
Nov. 3, noon ET | 71% |
Nov. 3, 5 p.m. ET | 75% |
Historical market-implied probabilities, using one-hour closing trade prices. These are dated observations, not current quotes or final statewide poll-close odds.
Talarico's price moved from 71% at noon ET on Election Day to 75% at 5 p.m. ET. A separate observation at 8 p.m. ET was 82%. Those readings describe different times; the earlier 75% figure should not be labeled final poll-close odds.
Source: Kalshi Texas historical prices
Kalshi prices imply a chance of an outcome, not a candidate's share of the vote. The county returns measure the actual reported margin. One election result cannot establish how well market probabilities perform across many races.
For the campaign background and earlier market timeline, see Kalshi's Texas race guide and projection story.
