Who won the 2026 Texas Senate race?

Kalshi projected Democrat James Talarico to win the 2026 Texas Senate race, defeating Republican Ken Paxton. It is the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988. Kalshi traders priced Talarico at 99% at the time of projection.

What were the odds for the 2026 Texas Senate race on Kalshi?

Kalshi traders priced James Talarico at 99% to win the 2026 Texas Senate race, up from 82% when polls closed on Election Day.

Who did James Talarico run against in the 2026 Texas Senate race?

James Talarico faced Republican Ken Paxton, Texas's incumbent attorney general, in the 2026 Senate race. Paxton led Kalshi's market through July 2026 before Talarico pulled even and took the lead in September 2026.

How did Talarico's Kalshi price move before the election?

Talarico rose to 54% in September 2026, hit a record 67% in early October 2026 amid leaked Paxton audio, and climbed to a final record of 75% on November 2, 2026, after a New York Times/Siena poll showed him up 7 points.

When was the last time a Democrat won a Texas Senate race?

The last Democratic Senate win in Texas before 2026 was in 1988. Talarico's projected win ends a nearly four-decade Republican hold on the seat.

Kalshi projects James Talarico wins Texas Senate race

Kalshi projects James Talarico (D) will win the 2026 Texas Senate race, defeating Ken Paxton (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Talarico's chances at 99%, up from 82% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held seat, the first Democratic Senate win in Texas since 1988, and leaves Democrats 2 net pickups short of a majority.

^{These projections do not imply market resolution or that races have been called}^.

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How the market moved

Kalshi's Texas Senate market, December 2024 to Nov 3, 2026: Paxton opened at 81%, and Talarico was at 99% at projection.

Paxton led Kalshi's Texas Senate market through July 2026. Talarico pulled even in early August 2026 and led from September 2026 through the final week of the campaign.

Sept 15, 2026: Talarico rose from a near-tie to 54% after a SoCal Strategies poll showed him up five points
Oct 7, 2026: Talarico climbed from 62% to a then-record 67% amid a week of leaked Paxton audio
Oct 28, 2026: Prices held at 66% to 34% through Trump's Lubbock rally for Paxton and nearly $190 million in Elon Musk spending for Paxton
Oct 31, 2026: Talarico hit a record 71%, up from 63.8% a week earlier, as early voting closed with record turnout
Nov 2, 2026: Talarico hit a record 75% as a final New York Times/Siena poll showed him up 7 points

Polls stayed closer than the market: the RealClearPolitics average had Talarico up 1.8 points, though a final New York Times/Siena poll had him up 7, and Kalshi’s margin market forecast a 2.7-point Talarico win on Election Day.

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