The final round of the 2026 3M Open is underway at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, and rookie Jackson Koivun enters the final round with a three-shot lead — and the market firmly behind him.
Traders on Kalshi's 3M Open winner market price Koivun at 54% to capture his first PGA Tour title in just his third professional start.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the PGA.
The story through 54 holes
The week belonged to record-setters before Sunday even arrived. Michael Kim fired a 59 on Friday — the 15th score of 59 in PGA Tour history — to briefly own the tournament. Then Koivun answered on Saturday with a bogey-free 61, posting a tournament-record 28 on the back nine that included eagles on the par-5 12th and the closing par-5 18th. The Auburn product is now at 20 under par, three clear of Ben Kohles and Emiliano Grillo, with Scottie Scheffler six back after a third-round 64 that showed the world No. 1 is fully awake.
"It felt great," Koivun told the Associated Press after Saturday's round. "It's what you work for. I definitely felt some nerves."
Kim, whose 59 made him the headline act through two rounds, shot a 70 on Moving Day and dropped to T-6, five off the pace. Michael Brennan and Chandler Phillips each went deep as well — a third-round 63 from Brennan pushed both into a tie at four back. Billy Horschel and Denny McCarthy sit five behind at T-6 alongside Kim.
Koivun vs. the field: winner market
Traders give Koivun a commanding 54% chance to close this out — the kind of probability that reflects both the lead and the pressure of a first professional win on the line. Kohles and Grillo follow at 10% each, with Scheffler drawing 7% despite sitting six back. Michael Brennan, four off the lead at 16 under, checks in at 6%.
Scheffler's presence is the storyline worth watching. A world No. 1 has never won in Minnesota on the PGA Tour, and conditions figure to tighten as the afternoon broadcast shifts from Golf Channel to CBS at 3 p.m. ET. Still, six shots is a significant deficit with one round to play.
Top 5 finish market
The top 5 market tells a crowded story. Koivun leads at 88%, reflecting how well-positioned he is even if the lead shrinks. Grillo sits at 66%, Kohles at 65%. Scheffler — despite the gap — draws 54%, which traders are treating as a realistic shot at a top-five charge given the depth of the leaderboard. Brennan is right at 52%, with Chandler Phillips at 42%.
Kalshi markets now predict:
Jackson Koivun — 54% to win, 88% top 5
Ben Kohles — 10% to win, 65% top 5
Emiliano Grillo — 10% to win, 66% top 5
Scottie Scheffler — 7% to win, 54% top 5
Michael Brennan — 6% to win, 52% top 5
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Image Source: jackson_koivun
This content is produced using artificial intelligence tools and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, trading advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. Prediction market prices reflect trader sentiment and are not guarantees of outcome. Trading involves risk. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Kalshi is not affiliated with the PGA Tour or the 3M Open.
