Nathan Fielder's experimental documentaryYou Can See Everything, following disgraced Theranos founder Elizabeth Holmes's final days before her prison sentence, is the hottest movie ticket around, and the word-of-mouth buzz has only increased Kalshi traders' confidence in its Oscar chances.
The film has increased to 32% odds of winning Best Picture over the course of its first week in theaters, overtaking The Black Ball (La Bola Negra), which has decreased to 15% odds.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with You Can See Everything.
Box office performance and the critical consensus
From a pure numbers standpoint, the limited theatrical release beginning on October 16, 2026 has created a supply-and-demand win for studio A24: the nearly 3-hour film has already grossed over $25.6 million in its first week.
Significant buzz around the subject, Fielder’s approach to directing, and the surprise twist has made it a must-see theatrical experience. The documentary is set to expand to more theaters this weekend.
You Can See Everything has also received unanimous critical acclaim. The Big Picture podcast co-host Sean Fennessey called it “the movie of the year,” The Guardian deemed it “a masterpiece,” and The New Yorker said, “the film is more than fascinating and ingenious; it’s strangely, poetically, poignantly beautiful.”
The film debuted at 4.8/5 on Letterboxd, the highest ever for a feature film. It currently holds a 4.6 on Letterboxd, and a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Oscar chances and historical precedent
As a previous Kalshi news report laid out, You Can See Everything could make Oscar history as the first documentary to ever be nominated for Best Picture. But the road to getting there could be difficult, and may not include a secondary nomination for Best Documentary Feature.
“The doc brand is not like other branches,” Vulture’s Nate Jones said. “No other branch takes such delight in going its own way, regularly giving a cold shoulder to titles the rest of the industry adores. No other branch’s members prioritize their role as combatants in an ideological battle – in this case, over what a documentary should be.”
Still, according to The Ankler, a snub from their own branch could actually help You Can See Everything get the Best Picture nomination. Writer Katey Rich compared the situation to 2013’s Argo campaign where Ben Affleck was snubbed for Best Director, which in turn fueled the votes to award the film with Best Picture. “That snub gives the film a fresh new wave of attention just in time for the start of Oscar nomination voting on Jan. 11, empowering voters outside the documentary branch to support it by putting it on their best picture lineup,” Rich summarized.
Right now, that does not seem to be top of mind for Kalshi traders who are still bullish on You Can See Everything winning the Best Documentary Feature prize. The film is currently trading at 76% odds in the Best Documentary Feature Film market.
The Academy will release shortlists for certain categories, including Best Documentary Feature, on December 15, 2026.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is not affiliated with You Can See Everything or A24.
