Pro basketball in the United States has officially reached its annual All-Star break. Naturally, that brings the beloved slam-dunk competition, three-point contest and other basketball-themed minigames to Intuit Dome in Inglewood.
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Speaking of the three-point shootout this Saturday, Kalshi’s traders currently have Charlotte forward Kon Knueppel as the market favorite. Last year’s winner, Miami guard Tyler Herro, is not competing due to injury, but other past champions like Damian Lillard and Devin Booker will participate.
Since the three-point contest is one of the most exciting events of All-Star Weekend, let’s dive into the market to see who might have an edge in Los Angeles.
For informational purposes only. Not financial advice. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA.
“Knue” kid on the block
As noted, Charlotte’s Knueppel leads the way at Kalshi with a 26% chance of winning. While he remains the favorite, he peaked at 45% on Tuesday, before falling back.
The Wisconsin native was the fourth overall pick out of Duke University, where he shot 40.6% from three-point range. Knueppel has upped the ante since joining the association, and is now converting threes at a 43.1% clip.
At just 20 years old, Knueppel has all the talent to thrive in this event, but does he have the mental fortitude? We’ll find out soon enough, as he will be taking on a respectable cast of veterans.
Other contenders
Portland’s Damian Lillard (16¢) and Denver’s Jamal Murray (12¢) are next on Kalshi’s list of three-point champion options. Of course, Lillard has won here twice before, taking back-to-back titles in 2023 and 2024. Another victory here would put Dame in a three-way tie with Larry Bird and Craig Hodges for most three-point crowns of all time.
This season, Murray is converting from deep at a career-best 42.5%. As a former league champion, he should not be counted out.
The field
The remaining three-point contest field consists of many strong challengers (and former champs).
Phoenix star Devin Booker presently has a 12% probability on Kalshi to win his second professional three-point trophy. Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey shows the same likelihood at this time. Maxey is shooting 37.9% from the three-point line this season, which is on par with his six-year average.
Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell (11¢), Miami’s Norman Powell (9¢) and Milwaukee’s Bobby Portis Jr. (5¢) are the final three competitors for the 2026 shootout. Of that trio, Portis has been the sharpest shooter this year; his 45.1% three-point clip paces all other participants.
The takeaway
The rookie Knueppel is a slight favorite to win the three-point contest, but this is an event that can certainly bring surprises. With that in mind, Knueppel will have to earn it, as his opposing competition is quite decorated.
Lillard, Murray and Booker are three examples of how deep the pool is in 2026. Simply put, these vets will do their best to ensure a rookie doesn’t steal the show in Inglewood. Oh, and with the way Portis is shooting it right now, don’t be shocked if he makes a legitimate run.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Three-point contest winner:
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