Argentina and Egypt have never met at a World Cup, but that changes Tuesday when the two sides square off in Atlanta with a quarterfinal spot on the line. Lionel Messi and Mohamed Salah, two of this tournament's most decorated attackers, will share the pitch as the Round of 16 wraps up.
The last meeting between these two countries was a 2008 friendly in Cairo, won by Argentina 2-0. A win sends either team to Kansas City on July 11 for a quarterfinal against the winner of Switzerland and Colombia.
On Kalshi, Argentina, the two-time defending champion, is priced at 86% to advance, while Egypt sits at just 15% to pull off the upset.
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What's at stake
Argentina needed extra time to get past Cape Verde in the Round of 32, twice giving up a lead before a Cristian Romero header deflected in for a 3-2 win. That 120-minute slog in Miami's heat left a fitness bill still being tallied, with Facundo Medina forced off with cramp and Enzo Fernandez playing through discomfort of his own.
Messi has scored seven goals this tournament and found the net in eight straight World Cup matches, and his career tally of 20 World Cup goals has already passed Miroslav Klose's longstanding record of 16. Coach Lionel Scaloni has downplayed any talk of an easy path, telling ESPN that "this World Cup is proving to be difficult for everyone."
Egypt's road here was longer still. The Pharaohs needed a penalty shootout to get past Australia after a 1-1 draw through 120 minutes, the first World Cup knockout win in the country's history. Salah entered that match carrying a hamstring concern, played all 120 minutes anyway, and calmly converted a Panenka penalty in the shootout.
A win Tuesday would make Egypt the fifth African nation to reach a World Cup quarterfinal, joining Cameroon in 1990, Senegal in 2002, Ghana in 2010, and Morocco in 2022 and again this year. Salah called the win over Australia "one of the best days of my life, making history with the team," speaking to The National afterward.
Reaching the semifinals
Kalshi's secondary market looks past the quarterfinal and asks who reaches the semifinals. Traders put Argentina at 65% and Egypt at 4%, a gap that reflects Messi's side entering as tournament favorite even after its scare against Cape Verde.
A semifinal appearance would be Argentina's fourth in five tournaments under Scaloni; for Egypt, it would be a step beyond anything the country has managed in nine prior World Cup appearances dating to 1934.
The bigger picture
At the tournament-winner market, Argentina sits at 18.5%, among the handful of teams Kalshi traders still see as legitimate title contenders as defending champion. Egypt is priced at 0.4%, a number that speaks to the distance still ahead rather than any lack of belief inside Hossam Hassan's squad, which has already delivered the best World Cup run in the country's history.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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