The Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays meet Sunday afternoon at Fenway Park to settle a three-game series tied at one apiece. Boston took the opener 6-4 on Friday before Toronto leveled things with a dominant 6-0 win Saturday behind Dylan Cease's one-hit complete game.
Kalshi traders price the Red Sox at 57% to win today's game, with the Blue Jays at 43%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with MLB.
What's at stake
Boston enters at 53-50, third in the AL East and firmly in Wild Card contention. The Red Sox have won 16 of their last 18 entering Sunday, a stretch that included a 15-game winning streak before Saturday's loss snapped a two-game run.
Meanwhile, Toronto sits at 48-57 and last in the division, with the postseason long out of reach. The Blue Jays lead the season series 6-2 against Boston, however, and Saturday's performance showed the gap between these teams is smaller than the standings suggest.
Saturday's game belonged to Cease, who took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before Andruw Monasterio's leadoff double ended the bid. George Springer's three-run homer in a five-run third inning did the rest.
"That was awesome. I was very happy to get it done," Cease told CBS Sports after becoming just the second visiting pitcher to take a no-hit bid into the sixth or later at Fenway Park since Jim Bunning's no-hitter there in 1958.
Pitching matchup: Suárez vs. Gausman
Ranger Suárez makes his first start since July 5, when a left groin strain landed him on the 15-day injured list. His return was delayed briefly by a viral illness, but the Red Sox reinstated him Sunday morning and optioned reliever Alec Gamboa to Triple-A Worcester to make room.
Suárez is 4-3 with a 3.15 ERA and 97 strikeouts across 91.1 innings this season, and has dominated Toronto in his career, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.00 ERA in three appearances against the Blue Jays while allowing just one unearned run in 17.1 innings.
Kevin Gausman takes the ball for Toronto at 4-9 with a 4.51 ERA and 117 strikeouts across 115.2 innings. Toronto has dropped seven consecutive starts Gausman has made, and his last outing ended after just 3.1 innings against Tampa Bay on July 21.
Masataka Yoshida has owned Gausman historically, hitting .533 with four extra-base hits in 15 career at-bats against him.
The AL East division race
The AL East race remains tight at the top. Traders give the Yankees a 46% chance to win the division, with the Rays close behind at 45%. Boston sits at 6% despite their recent surge, while Toronto is priced at just 1%. A Red Sox win today would keep their Wild Card push rolling into a series at Sacramento next week.
The bigger picture: World Series odds
Neither team sits prominently in the World Series market. The Dodgers lead at 34%, with the Yankees at 13% and the Brewers at 9%. The Red Sox check in at 6%, modest but alive, while the Blue Jays do not register among the top contenders.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This content is generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, or trading advice. Prediction market probabilities reflect real-money crowd sentiment and may not accurately predict outcomes. Kalshi is not affiliated with Major League Baseball. Always trade responsibly.
