Kalshi traders now price in a 65% chance that FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino will leave his post by the end of the year. Traders also think there’s a 93% chance he will leave before 2027.
Just two days ago, the odds of Bongino exiting in 2025 were just over 5%. But prices spiked after a report from the New York Times claimed the former broadcaster had recently discussed his imminent departure with a friend and was boxing up belongings from his office to ship back to his home in Florida.
A recent report from Fox News appears to be another major driver of trader activity. Fox News’ Anders Hagstrom posted a report on Monday afternoon citing two inside sources who told him that President Trump’s FBI deputy director is considering stepping down from his position “within the next few weeks.”
Mounting criticism
Bongino and FBI director Kash Patel have both come under fire in recent weeks after reports surfaced about low morale and the alleged lack of leadership at the FBI. Patel is the third most likely to leave in 2027 according to Kalshi’s 2027 departure market, and is trading at 62 cents.
Bongino has faced intense scrutiny over multiple issues, including the FBI’s release of heavily redacted Jeffrey Epstein files and undisclosed meetings with a Ukrainian negotiator. Those actions have raised questions about both Bongino’s leadership and his coordination with FBI Director Kash Patel.
Rachael Bade’s Inner Circle newsletter reported last week that Bongino “infuriated the White House” over his handling of the Epstein files last summer, fueling speculation among her sources that he “could be out any day.”
Last month, the New York Post obtained a copy of a 115-page assessment compiled by active duty and retired FBI agents and analysts on the first six months of Patel and Bongino’s leadership. The assessment characterized Patel as “in over his head” as the head of the FBI and called Bongino “something of a clown.” The report also characterized the current state of the FBI as a “rudderless ship” and “all f---ed up.”
Patel’s last stand?
Traders believe Patel may not be stepping down in 2025, but is likely to exit sometime in coming year. Patel’s chances of leaving this year are trading at 6 cents, while traders are paying 48 cents for contracts that pay out if he is out before 2027.
Could Noem also be headed home?
Traders also believe that Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem could be the first cabinet member to leave the Trump Administration (Bongino and Patel are part of the administration, but are not cabinet members). She’s currently trading at 25 cents, ahead of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at 16 cents.
Noem has faced heavy criticism since Trump appointed her as head of Homeland Security, and is facing a possible contempt investigation after allegedly ignoring a court order from Judge James E. Boasberg to cease all flights of Venezuelan immigrants being sent to El Salvador.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now forecast
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