Brazil and Norway meet today in East Rutherford with a quarterfinal place on the line. Brazil arrives as the tournament's most successful nation in history; Norway arrives as the only team the five-time champions have never beaten.
Traders on Kalshi give Brazil a 71% chance to advance, reflecting a strong group stage and a dramatic comeback win over Japan in the Round of 32. Norway sits at 30%, buoyed by Erling Haaland's tournament-leading form. The winner faces the winner of Mexico vs. England in the quarterfinals.
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What's at stake
Brazil finished top of Group C, beating Scotland and Haiti before playing to a draw with Morocco. Carlo Ancelotti's side needed a stoppage-time strike from Gabriel Martinelli to beat Japan 2-1 in the Round of 32, and Vinicius Junior has carried the attack throughout, scoring in every group-stage match. A win today would extend Brazil's streak to nine straight World Cup quarterfinals.
Norway, meanwhile, finished second in Group I behind France, having lost 4-1 in that meeting before beating Ivory Coast 2-1 on Erling Haaland's 86th-minute winner in the Round of 32. Al Jazeera reported that victory marked Norway's first-ever World Cup knockout win. Haaland has scored five of Norway's ten goals this tournament, tying him for the tournament lead, and history offers Norway some comfort: across four prior meetings, Brazil has never beaten them, most recently losing 2-1 in the 1998 World Cup group stage.
Reaching the semifinals
The gap widens in Kalshi's secondary markets. Traders price Brazil at 36% to reach the semifinals, while Norway sits at 13%. That reflects how much harder the bracket gets from here, with Brazil's dominant history offering only so much protection against a Norway side playing without fear.
The bigger picture
In the tournament-winner market, Brazil sits at 7.1%, among the contenders for a sixth title. Norway is priced at 1.6%, a figure that reflects the distance between a milestone knockout run and lifting the trophy, not any lack of belief in a squad built around one of the world's most dangerous strikers.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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