Kalshi traders have sharply increased their expectations that Secretary of State Marco Rubio will leave the Trump administration before the end of the year.
Rubio's price on Kalshi's market for Trump administration departures this year reached a new high of 55%, an increase of 45 percentage points since Nov. 2, before falling back to 43% at the time of this writing.
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Rubio's potential 2028 presidential campaign
Speculation about Rubio's potential 2028 presidential campaign has intensified following the midterm elections.
The Independent reported that Rubio is on “resignation watch,” so he can start his presidential bid.
The Independent cited senior political and government sources in the U.S. and U.K. who said Rubio had been under scrutiny as a potential departure before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.
Rubio may also leave the Trump administration as a way to distance himself from some of its least popular policies and decisions.
“One Washington insider told The Independent that Mr. Rubio needs to ‘distance himself from the Iran war and pin that one on Trump,’ ” The Independent wrote.
The Independent also reported that the White House and State Department “strongly denied the reports dismissing allegations of an impending departure as baseless.”
Leaving the administration could also give Rubio an opportunity to establish political independence ahead of a potential 2028 presidential campaign.
A Rubio ally told the newspaper, “Rubio is the leading candidate at the moment to be the [Republican] nominee. He’s definitely ahead of [Vice President J.D.] Vance. But he cannot run while he is still secretary of state, and being tied to the administration will only harm his prospects anyway.”
Some Republican commentators suggested the party's midterm losses could benefit Rubio's potential presidential ambitions.
MS NOW reported that Fox News commentator Trey Gowdy noted, “There’s one winner tonight on the Republican side, and that is Marco Rubio.”
Vice President J.D. Vance is another potential contender for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. MS NOW reported that Vance has publicly blamed the war with Iran for the party's midterm losses.
Vance also seems to be testing the waters for a possible presidential bid in 2028. Washington Post columnist Jim Geraghty noted, “By Wednesday morning, Vance was test-driving a new message: End the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first and change the U.S. relationship with Israel. That is apparently what a whip-smart pollster suggested to the vice president this week.”
Republican presidential nominee
Rubio's price has remained relatively stable on Kalshi's 2028 Republican presidential nominee market.
Rubio currently sits at 23% behind Vice President J.D. Vance at 31% and ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 17%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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