Colts vs. Patriots odds: Drake Maye sits as Indianapolis opens as a 62% favorite at Gillette

The Indianapolis Colts visit Gillette Stadium to open the 2026 preseason against the New England Patriots Thursday, with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Kalshi has Indianapolis as a 62% favorite to beat New England, as of this writing, in the first preseason meeting between the two franchises since 1992.

Last year told opposite stories. New England went 14-3, won the AFC Championship, and reached Super Bowl LX before losing to the Seahawks 13-29. Indianapolis finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs for the third straight year. The teams held a joint practice Tuesday at Gillette Stadium, giving both staffs an extended look at each other's rosters ahead of Thursday's game.

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Kalshi's market price reflects a real gap at quarterback more than it reflects last year's records. Indianapolis is set to play Anthony Richardson Sr. for the entire first half, with Riley Leonard getting the start in Week 2 as the two compete to back up an injured Daniel Jones, who coach Shane Steichen confirmed will sit out the entire preseason while recovering from a torn Achilles. New England, by contrast, is down to Tommy DeVito and a seventh-round rookie with Drake Maye unlikely to play at all.

Kalshi traders give Indianapolis a 55% probability of winning by more than 2.5 points, as of this writing.

Kalshi has a 52% probability the two teams combine for more than 37.5 points, as of this writing.

New England is also thin at running back, with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson both held out and undrafted second-year back Lan Larison expected to start in their place. Indianapolis has the deeper skill-position group by comparison, and has outscored preseason opponents 224-175 since Shane Steichen became head coach.

Beyond the backfield, this game is a proving ground for roster-bubble players on both sides. Indianapolis cornerback Mekhi Blackmon, who appeared in all 17 games last season after an in-season trade from Minnesota, is in line for extended snaps behind starter Charvarius Ward Sr. New England's Cam Bynum intercepted Drake Maye during Tuesday's joint practice, a sign of the two-minute-drill work both staffs are using this week to evaluate depth.

Kalshi has the Colts at 18% to win the AFC South Division, as of this writing.

Kalshi has the Patriots at 10% to win the AFC Championship, as of this writing.

Kalshi markets now predict:

When is Colts vs. Patriots? Thursday, August 13, 2026, with kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Where is the game? Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts.
How can I watch? Regionally on the Patriots Preseason Television Network, flagship WBZ-TV CBS Boston.
What is Kalshi's current number? Indianapolis is a 62% favorite over New England, as of this writing.

Indianapolis enters as the favorite behind a clear quarterback-depth edge over a Patriots team missing its starter and top backups.

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