The Department of Homeland Security has gone unfunded for 70 days, and traders expect funding to remain stalled for weeks.
Traders are predicting that DHS funding will return before June at 67%, before May 22 at 48%, and before May 15 at 40%.
They also don’t see the partial government shutdown ending soon. The forecast shows the standoff lasting 99.3 days. The market also shows a price of 62% for the shutdown lasting at least 95 days and 48% for at least 100 days.
The shutdown so far
The Department of Homeland Security has gone without funding since February 14, when the White House rejected a funding proposal from Senate Democrats. A series of deadly shootings carried out by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Minnesota prompted Democrats to insist on new restrictions before passing a funding bill.
The New York Times reported that Senate Democrats and Republicans have tried five times to pass spending bills with different compromises, but could not reach an agreement.
President Donald Trump agreed to a deal with support from Senate and House Democrats to fund DHS without ICE, but House Republicans refused to put the bill up for a vote.
Running out of money
The lack of a funding plan hit the Transportation Security Administration particularly hard, causing employees to go without paychecks for weeks at a time. Understaffed airports have also resulted in long lines at security checkpoints.
DHS found a way to pay TSA officers and other staff members last month, but the problem could return if Congress and the White House don’t come to a compromise soon.
CNN reported that Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin said emergency funding released in March for Homeland Security will run out in early May.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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