Traders think the government may be headed toward another shutdown. The market shows a 78.9% chance of the government shutdown happening on Saturday, up 67.5 percentage points since Jan. 24.
Shutdown Saturday?
The reason for the sudden increase is likely due to a potential showdown over funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer released a statement promising not to vote for any appropriations bill that includes ICE funding, citing what he called “appalling” actions by ICE agents in Minnesota that led to the deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good. He added the actions of these agents are “unacceptable in any American city.”
Several other Democratic senators are also vowing not to support the bill as it is currently written.
The appropriations bill includes $64.4 billion in funding for the Department of Homeland Security with $10 billion for ICE. The bill also provides funding for the Pentagon and State Departments and programs that cover health, education, labor and transportation.
Sen. Susan Collins, the Republican chairwoman of the Appropriations Committee, says she’s “exploring all options” regarding the appropriations bill.
Kristi Noem exits?
The shutdown market wasn’t the only one to surge following Democrats’ statements. The odds for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem’s departing the Trump Administration before the end of the year have risen to 57%.
Traders also increased the price of Noem’s chances for being the first Trump Cabinet member to leave office to 27%. The price is up 9% in the last 12 hours.
Several state and federal leaders have called for Noem’s resignation and the removal of ICE agents from Minnesota in the wake of Pretti’s death. New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and California Gov. Gavin Newsom both released statements calling for Noem’s resignation. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz also demanded that President Donald Trump remove all ICE agents from his state, calling them “untrained.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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