Wimbledon's first round is underway, and Novak Djokovic opens his campaign today against Wu Yibing on Centre Court.
Djokovic enters the tournament without a tour-level match since a third-round exit at the French Open, while Wu arrives off a quiet grass-court swing that included a first-round qualifying loss in Eastbourne.
On paper, this is about as lopsided as a Centre Court draw gets, but Djokovic has made clear that staying sharp through the early rounds matters as much as winning them outright.
Kalshi traders give Djokovic a 93% chance to win, with Wu sitting at 9%.
This article is not affiliated with or endorsed by the ATP, WTA, or Wimbledon.
What's at stake
This is the first ATP Tour meeting between Djokovic and Wu, and it's also just Wu's second main-draw appearance at Wimbledon, following a first-round exit back in 2023.
For Djokovic, the seventh seed, a win opens a path toward Stefanos Tsitsipas or Hugo Gaston in round two, part of a draw he'll need to navigate carefully if he wants to chase history deep into the second week.
Djokovic's path to Centre Court
Djokovic hasn't played a competitive match since losing in five sets to Joao Fonseca in the third round at Roland Garros, a result that ended his clay-court season earlier than he would have liked. He's also dealt with a shoulder injury that limited him to just a handful of events this year. Even so, the seven-time Wimbledon champion says the grass suits his recovery better than the clay did.
"I think I'm better prepared here than I was for Roland Garros," Djokovic told the ATP ahead of the tournament, adding that grass requires less physical strain than the longer rallies he ground through in Paris. A win against Wu today would put him one step closer to a record-tying eighth Wimbledon title and a 25th Grand Slam crown overall.
Wu's path to Centre Court
Wu enters ranked No. 99, his career having been slowed for years by injuries before a recent climb back into the top 100. His preparation for grass was rocky: he lost in the first qualifying round at Eastbourne and made it only as far as the round of 16 on the Challenger circuit in Nottingham. Still, he didn't hide his excitement when the draw paired him with Djokovic.
"To play Djokovic here on Centre Court at Wimbledon is many players' dream, including mine," Wu told ATPTour.com, calling Djokovic the sport's GOAT. His flat, powerful groundstrokes can play well on fast grass, giving him at least a puncher's chance if he can keep points short and avoid extended baseline exchanges against the far more experienced Djokovic.
The bigger picture
Beyond today's match, Djokovic's odds to win Wimbledon outright sit at 12% on Kalshi, second in the field but well behind the market's clear favorite. Defending champion Jannik Sinner leads at 60%, a reflection of both his current form and the fact that
Djokovic fell to Sinner in last year's semifinal, the first time in nearly a decade he failed to reach the Wimbledon final. A first-round win today wouldn't change the math much, but a loss would end the bid before it ever got started.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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