NFL MVP odds and predictions: Allen, Burrow lead crowded group of quarterbacks

There is no more prestigious award in the NFL than the league's MVP, but the market can seem a bit ambiguous in August as every team is fueled with optimism.

Kalshi's market reflects this. Josh Allen leads the field with an 11% chance to bring home the hardware, with Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow virtually tied at 10% apiece, and Justin Herbert close behind at 9%.

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Let's meet the top candidates for the award.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen won the award in 2024 behind a 13-4 campaign, and the team trading with a 56% chance to achieve 11+ wins at Kalshi is likely a huge reason why he's back in the mix:

Allen was second in the league in total touchdowns (39), but 14 of them came on the ground for the do-it-all threat that also led the NFL in rushing yards (579).

What worked against him last year? Well, running back James Cook led the league in rushing yards (1,621). It's hard to say it's all on his shoulders in that case, and Cook is ready and healthy for 2026.

Battling health and poor defenses most of his career, it's incredible to think that a passer like Joe Burrow, who led Cincinnati to the title game in 2021, has never even had a top-two finish in MVP voting.

Does that change this year solely by factors out of his control? The Bengals have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis. As a result, they're trading at 61% likely to achieve double-digit wins on Kalshi.

The team's acquisition of Dexter Lawrence could shore up what has been a porous run defense to keep Burrow and a prolific Bengals offense, 12th in scoring offense (24.4 PPG) a year ago, off the field.

The Ravens' 7% chances to win the NFL title are fourth-best in Kalshi's market, which explains why former two-time MVP Lamar Jackson is back in the mix for another.

Frankly, the former Heisman Trophy winner is looking to put behind him a dismal 2025 campaign in which he missed four games. "Action" Jackson was also ineffective by his usual standards against the others, posting interception and sack per-game marks that were the highest they've been since 2021.

A thorn in Jackson's side in the award conversations will be his newfound running mate, Derrick Henry. Henry has scored 32 touchdowns in two years with Baltimore, taking impressive counting stats off Lamar's plate.

It might surprise some to see Justin Herbert this high up the board, but many expect big things from the L.A. Chargers in 2026.

Herbert's group added former Miami head coach Mike McDaniel to call plays for a loaded group of weapons, including 2025 first-round pick Omarion Hampton, Ladd McConkey, and Tre' Harris. The Chargers (30%) are right there with the Chiefs (34%) and Broncos (31%) in odds to win the AFC West at Kalshi, and those two teams have combined to host all but one AFC Championship game since 2018:

The 6'6" gunslinger has always been praised for his talent. Is 2026 the year he puts it all together with an undeniable statistical season?

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (7% at Kalshi) has been on an undeniable trajectory in his first two seasons as a pro. Armed with mastermind Ben Johnson calling plays in Chicago, Williams will look to build on a playoff run that birthed "The Iceman".

Is it finally the Dallas Cowboys' year? Dak Prescott (6%) might be rejuvenated by Dallas' defensive acquisitions over the last year, including Quinnen Williams, Caleb Downs, and Rashan Gary to, hopefully for them, repair what was a historically terrible defense. At Dak's disposal once again are All-Pro receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who enters a contract year.

Could Jordan Love (5%) be a sleeper in 2026? Josh Jacobs' legal issues could push a bit more onto Green Bay's quarterback this season. Love was eighth in yards per attempt (7.7) a year ago with a stellar 23 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.

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