The Texas Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state Rep. James Talarico is tightening in both polling and Kalshi markets.
The Texas Senate market now prices Paxton at 51% and Talarico at 49%.
What do the polls say?
Talarico has started to gain ground on Paxton in several polls.
The New York Times poll tracker shows Talarico leading in five different polls by at least two points. Paxton only leads in three polls at a minimum of one point.
One of those polls where Talarico leads Paxton is a Fox News poll. The Hill reported Talarico leads Paxton in the Fox News Poll by three points, “an encouraging sign for Democrats, who haven’t won a statewide race in Texas in more than three decades.”
Paxton’s scandals
Paxton received an endorsement from President Donald Trump, but it seems his long string of scandals from his time as Texas Attorney General may be following him to his campaign. Some of the more serious allegations include securities fraud charges for which he was indicted in 2015. The case languished in court for nine years until 2024 when Paxton agreed to pay $300,000 in restitution and perform community service, according to The Barbed Wire.
In 2020, the FBI opened an investigation into Paxton’s office alleging he committed bribery and other abuse-of-office allegations. Paxton was accused of using the powers of his position to help a political donor. Attorneys from Paxton’s own office reported the case to the FBI. The Justice Department declined to continue pursuing the case in 2024.
That same year, four attorneys from Paxton's office sued him for violating the Texas Whistleblower Act after he fired them for reporting his conduct to the FBI. Paxton agreed to pay the four attorneys $3.3 million and issue an apology, with the payment to come from state funds pending approval from the Texas legislature. The legislature never approved the payment, instead launching an investigation that led to Paxton's impeachment.
In 2022, the Texas State Bar sued Paxton for professional misconduct over the election fraud lawsuit he had filed in the U.S. Supreme Court against Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The U.S. Supreme Court had already dismissed that underlying case for lack of standing. The Texas Supreme Court eventually dismissed the State Bar's professional misconduct case against Paxton in 2025.
Paxton's impeachment trial
All of these scandals culminated with Paxton’s impeachment trial in the Texas legislature.
The impeachment trial centered around the FBI investigation into bribery and abuse of office. The House voted 121-23 to impeach Paxton, the third time in state history that the Texas legislature impeached an official from office.
The Texas Senate held a two-week trial that examined testimony from witnesses who said Paxton used his office and power to investigate his political enemies, delay foreclosures of his properties, and even allegations that he covered up an affair. The Texas Senate eventually acquitted him of all charges after supporters of impeachment failed to secure the votes needed for conviction.
Senate Control
Along with the Texas Senate race market, the gap has also narrowed on Kalshi's party winner market for control of the U.S. Senate after the November midterms. The Republican Party is still leading with its chances priced at 54%, but the Democratic Party isn't far behind at 46%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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