Calls for Rep. Max Miller to drop out of the race continue, but Kalshi traders seem to think it's unlikely.
The market for Miller's chances of dropping out by Aug. 11 is now at 27%, down from 66% on Aug. 4.
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The allegations
Three women accused Miller of physical and emotional abuse going back to his high school days.
The Washington Post reported that the first allegations surfaced when Miller's ex-wife Emily Moreno accused Miller in court filings of throwing hot water on her from a pan of eggs he was cooking. After she fell on the floor, Miller sprayed her with a sink hose. Miller later admitted to spraying her but characterized it as horseplay rather than an assault.
Mother Jones later reported on the allegations with the discovery of police reports and court filings related to an investigation involving two police detectives, a case worker from the Division of Family Services, and a physician. The officials were investigating how Miller's 2-year-old daughter “wound up with a broken collarbone.” The officials concluded charges of abuse were unsubstantiated due to a lack of evidence to support allegations of abuse or neglect.
The court filings also listed accusations of “drug use by Miller, misogyny and verbal abuse, and violent behavior against multiple women. The filings also include evidence that Miller implicitly threatened his ex-father-in-law, Sen. Bernie Moreno.”
More allegations against Miller from other women resurfaced in a 2021 Politico report filed by Michael Kruse. The allegations first came to light when Miller worked as a staffer on President Donald Trump's second presidential campaign. The report found more police reports and court records detailed alleged behavior such as underage drinking and disorderly conduct. Kruse also conducted interviews with three people who said Miller pushed a woman he was seeing against the wall of her Washington apartment and slapped her in the face “after she accused him of cheating on her.”
Miller’s response
Miller posted a livestream video on X to not only deny the abuse claims, but he also vowed not to drop out of his race.
The New York Times' Annie Karni reported that Miller said in a 20-minute livestream that he would not drop out of the race. Miller “defiantly denied those claims on Sunday and refused to drop out of his race for a third term.”
Several GOP leaders including his ex-father-in-law Sen. Bernie Moreno called for Miller to drop out of the race. NPR also reported that the House Ethics Committee announced it would open an investigation into Miller's behavior.
Miller also underwent a serious grilling from CNN reporter Jake Tapper over the abuse allegations leveled against him. The Independent reported that Miller pointed out that the investigations involving his ex-wife and daughter did not lead to any charges. He also insisted that the three other women who accused him of abusive behavior were lying.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Max Miller dropping out before Aug. 11: 27%
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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