Markets move against Musk after first day of OpenAI trial

Traders sent Elon Musk's odds of winning his lawsuit against OpenAI lower after he took the stand Tuesday.

Musk's odds of a legal victory fell to 53.5%, dropping approximately 8 percentage points over a few hours Tuesday afternoon.

Musk is suing OpenAI, Sam Altman, and Microsoft over claims that the AI giant abandoned its nonprofit model after Musk provided $38 million in funding to create the product.

The New York Times reported that both sides opened by laying out their versions of the events that led to the lawsuit. Musk testified that OpenAI and Altman stole his money by breaking their promise to remain a nonprofit entity as it developed its signature software.

Musk's counsel, Steve Molo, said in his opening statement that Altman and OpenAI's executives stole a charity using Musk's funding.

"A museum store can't loot the muse, steal all the Picassos, and use them to turn a profit," Molo said.

OpenAI's counsel William Savitt described Musk's lawsuit as nothing more than "sour grapes" because "Musk didn't get his way at OpenAI."

"My clients had the nerve to go on and succeed without him," Savitt added. "Mr. Musk did not like that."

Musk became the first witness called by his side. He summed up his case against OpenAI and Altman with a simple statement: "This lawsuit is very simple: It is not OK to steal a charity."

Musk said he believed OpenAI could create "an AI-human symbiosis" that "can achieve an AI that is better for humanity."

Musk also claimed he laid the foundation for OpenAI, testifying that he "came up with the name, recruited the key people, and raised the funding."

The New York Times saw its own market move in the opposite direction, with traders pricing its odds of winning its lawsuit against OpenAI at 70.5%.

The Times filed its copyright infringement lawsuit in 2023, alleging that OpenAI and other AI platforms used "millions of articles published by The Times" to train its chatbots and systems "that now compete with the news outlet as a source of reliable information."

The lawsuit does not specify a monetary amount for damages, but argues that OpenAI should be held accountable for "billions of dollars in statutory and actual damages."

Kalshi markets now predict:

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