Former FBI Director James Comey faces a new federal indictment, this time over a photograph he posted on Instagram last summer. On Kalshi, the indictment sent Comey's odds of being arrested sharply higher.
Comey's price on the market for who will be arrested by the end of the year jumped by 51 percentage points to 76%.
The latest indictment
Federal prosecutors filed a second case against Comey over a post he made while vacationing on the North Carolina coast.
The New York Times reported that the new case stems from a photograph Comey posted in which he made the phrase "86 47" out of seashells, allegedly referring to President Trump's second term as the 47th president.
Shortly after the post, Secret Service agents questioned Comey about the image under the direction of former Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard also said in a Fox News interview that Comey should be jailed for posting the photograph.
Comey later removed the post, insisting that "86" carried no violent meaning.
Previous indictment
This is the second time that President Trump's Justice Department has sought a criminal indictment against the former FBI director, whom President Trump fired during his first term.
A grand jury in Virginia indicted Comey in September of last year for lying and obstructing a congressional investigation regarding testimony he gave before Congress in 2020.
President Trump fired the first U.S. attorney in the Eastern District of Virginia who declined to bring charges against Comey. The president replaced that U.S. attorney with White House aide Lindsey Halligan, who quickly obtained an indictment from a grand jury against Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James.
Both indictments were dismissed the following November, and traders currently price a 14% chance it will be reinstated on appeal before 2027.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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