The Milano-Cortina Winter Olympic Games are officially underway! Of the many athletic displays to come in Northern Italy, the men’s ice hockey tournament is one of the most anticipated events. And for the first time in 12 years, NHL players will take part, representing their home countries.
First up, we’ll see powerhouse Finland taking on Slovakia, with the puck drop scheduled today at 10:40 a.m. ET. Currently, Kalshi’s traders price Finland as a heavy favorite.
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Let’s dive into the upcoming action at Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
Finland enters the 2026 games as the reigning gold medalists. With that, the Finns are priced at 81¢ on Kalshi to defeat Slovakia in the inaugural match of the tournament.
Slovakia is certainly a talented group on the ice, but its seven current NHL players pale in comparison to Finland: a country boasting 24 athletes from the NHL on its roster. Moreover, Slovakia has never finished better than bronze (2022) in men’s ice hockey at the Olympics.
The Finnish duo of forwards, Sebastian Aho and Mikko Rantanen, will prove challenging for any nation’s defense to manage. From there, goalie Juuse Saros (.912 SV%) from the Nashville Predators is one of the best performers at his position.
24-year-old Slovak goalie Samuel Hlavaj will have his work cut out for him. Hlavaj is a prospect of the Minnesota Wild, but he has yet to participate in an NHL game.
Finland has a 21–3 record against Slovakia on the international stage. In the most recent head-to-head meeting, Finland held on for a 2–1 win at the 2025 World Championships. Subsequently, Slovakia has not defeated Finland since 2017 (Euro Hockey Challenge).
Gold medal nation
After winning its first gold medal in the event in Beijing, Finland has just a seven percent chance to repeat as champions. Within Kalshi’s Men’s Ice Hockey gold medal market, Canada (46¢) is listed as the tournament favorite.
Kalshi’s traders are also showing confidence in the United States and Sweden. The U.S. is presently priced at 35% to win its first gold in men’s hockey since 1980. Sweden is priced at 12¢ to go the distance, which lands third in the market. Slovakia is showing a probability of less than one percent here.
The takeaway:
Finland is significantly more talented and experienced than Slovakia. Further, Finland’s current roster is well-seasoned on an international level. After taking the gold in ‘22, this team will look to make a reaffirming statement now that NHL players are allowed to participate once again.
Slovakia will put forth its best effort, but Finland will face much tougher challenges down the line in Milano. The high-profile competitors from North America, Canada and the United States, are still considered to be the gold medal favorites.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
To win Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey gold medal:
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.