With Democrats set to control both houses of Congress next year, several Trump administration officials could face impeachment proceedings.
The Kalshi market for the next Trump Cabinet departure shows Hegseth at 57%, followed by White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles at 16% and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick at 8%.
Hegseth’s price climbed from 41.7% on Sunday to a new high of 57%.
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Pete Hegseth's possible impeachment
Calls for Hegseth’s impeachment began gaining traction before Democrats’ Election Day victories, and traders price the odds of that happening before July at 65%.
Rep. Adam Smith, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, told TIME Magazine a few months ago that he didn't think impeachment should be on the table because it could make him “politically stronger.”
Smith reversed his position just days before the election.
“With Democrats hoping to reclaim control of the House in Tuesday’s midterm elections, Smith says that he now supports impeaching Trump and is inclined to also back proceedings against Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, making him one of the most senior Democrats to endorse such a course,” TIME wrote.
Hegseth has faced criticism from Democratic and Republican lawmakers over several controversies, including the war in Iran.
In 2025, Hegseth was accused of sharing sensitive information on the app Signal. The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg reported that he was inadvertently included in a Signal group chat in which Hegseth shared details about planned military operations.
Hegseth has fired several top military officers and officials. The Associated Press reported that he recently fired Army Lt. Gen. Brett Sylvia, who served as head of strategy, plans, and policy on the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Atlantic reported that no replacement had been named and that officials had provided no explanation for Sylvia's dismissal.
Hegseth also faced scrutiny over a U.S. military strike on a vessel suspected of drug trafficking near Venezuela. The Associated Press reported that a special operations team attacked the survivors of the boat strike, which could be a violation of the laws of armed conflict.
“These are serious charges, and that we’re going to have special oversight,” said Sen. Roger Wicker, the Republican chair of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Even with control of both chambers, Democrats would need Republican support to remove Hegseth from office, which requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate following impeachment by the House. The Hill reported that could happen since “the tides are likely to turn after the election, when Republicans will be freed to weigh in on Hegseth's fate without fear of a voter backlash, while Democrats will face a tougher choice.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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