Kalshi projects Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) will win the 2026 Alaska governor race, defeating Bernadette Wilson (R). Traders on Kalshi priced Kreiss-Tomkins' chances at 99%, up from 97% when polls closed. The win flips a Republican-held governorship and makes Kreiss-Tomkins Alaska's first Democratic governor since Tony Knowles left office in 2002.
How the market moved
Kalshi's Alaska governor market, August 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: Democrats were at 51% before the Aug 18, 2026 primary, and Kreiss-Tomkins was at 99% at projection.
Kreiss-Tomkins, a former state representative, became the only Democrat on the four-candidate ballot after Tom Begich withdrew in August 2026 and endorsed him. Wilson, a conservative activist, led a split Republican field.
Oct 30, 2026: Kreiss-Tomkins led 88% to 11%
Alaska Survey Research's final poll had Kreiss-Tomkins up 53% to 47% after ranked-choice tabulation.
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